Holly Lake Ranch, TX Weather

Key Messages

Issued at 150 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

- Given the ongoing drought across the region, wildfires will remain of concern through the end of next week.

- The lack of appreciable rainfall and growing rainfall deficit will result in further drought degradation through the end of this month into early November.

- Scattered showers late next week into early next weekend could bring temporary relief to rain starved soils until widespread appreciable rainfall returns.

Discussion

Issued at 150 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

A look at water vapor imagery this afternoon reveals the upper ridge axis still largely centered atop our region while continuing to slowly migrate eastward. In the process, expansive cirrus and even some spotty cumulus has begun to spread into the western portions of our area this afternoon as dew points continue to recover ever so slightly after an extended period of very dry air in place. Even with cirrus expanding farther east in the region, afternoon temperatures have still managed to reach the lower 80s nearly across the board. With more of these high-level clouds in place overnight, low temperatures may not fall off quite as much as the past several nights with most areas ranging from the lower to mid 50s.

Moving ahead through the new work week, expect the above average warmth to continue even as the upper ridge axis continues to shift farther east. Meanwhile, an upper trough out west will struggle to gain any traction across our region with the ridge still expansive enough to deflect the trough's energy to our north and northeast. By mid-week, the ridge will re-amplify once again with tempeatures inching back higher toward the mid 80s for afternoon highs. With that in mind, fire danger concerns will persist with only modest recovery of afternoon RH values as southeasterly low-level flow returns.

By Friday and into Halloween next weekend, the longwave pattern still appears favorable to usher in some welcome rainfall as SW flow aloft sets up across across the region. While guidance has waffled slightly in recent days, better consensus has established higher confidence in seeing our first decent chance of widespread rainfall next weekend. At the moment, rain chances appear highest on Saturday into Saturday night so outdoor Halloween festivities may be in jeopardy given our current thinking in terms of rainfall timing. On a positive note, we are in desperate need of the rain, and this may be the first in a series of rain-producing events as we move into early November.

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Aviation

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1240 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

For the 25/18Z TAFs, VFR conditions will prevail throughout this forecast period, with mostly clear skies east giving way to increasing high clouds west. Some brief misty conditions at the surface are possible near or shortly after 26/12Z for our southernmost zones, but confidence does not merit inclusion as of this writing. Light east winds of about 5 kts will taper off overnight before increasing to 5 kts with a southeasterly course into the day tomorrow.

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Spotter Information Statement

Issued at 150 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

Spotter activation may be needed early this week in the event of wildfire development.

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