Baytown, TX Weather

Key Messages

- Warm and dry conditions expected through early next week.

- Potentially hazardous winds and seas over the Gulf late Saturday through Monday.

- Potential change to a wetter pattern by the end of the month or early November.

Discussion

Issued at 1229 AM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

The ridge that has been stationed over us since the first cold front of the season begins to weaken during the weekend. The pressure gradient will tighten this weekend, thus, bringing the possibility of winds around 10 mph with gusts up to 20 mph at times. Rain chances will remain low through Sunday due to PWAT values of around 1" or less. Temperatures are still anticipated to reach the low to mid 80s inland while staying slightly cooler in the upper 70s along the coast. Increasing moisture transported from the Gulf raises the dewpoints back into the upper 50s to low 60s, decreasing our fire weather risk. Overnight lows sit between the mid 50s and low 60s inland while slightly warmer along the coast in the upper 60s and low 70s.

As we start the work week, an upper-level trough will meander south through the Plains while surface moisture continues to move in from the Mid Texas Coast, increasing PWATs to around 1.5 inches. This is where we will see our PoPs return, brining isolated to scattered showers mainly over areas west of I-45. Temperatures will be slightly cooler early next with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. The overnight lows, on the other hand, are slightly warmer sitting in the 60s inland and low 70s along the coast lines. This is due to the previously mentioned additional moisture and increasing dewpoints.

Looking further ahead guidance continues to suggest a cold front dropping into the area around the Halloween time frame. But uncertain remains with the usual suspects of timing and intensity that far out in the models.

CMW/Cotto

Aviation

(06Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1229 AM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

There is a chance for MVFR conditions due to patchy fog developing during the overnight to early morning hours. Otherwise, VFR conditions expected through the end of the TAF period. Winds will remain light and VRB through Sat morning, then become ESE to SE at around 10 KTS with occasional gusts of around 20 KTS in the afternoon. A weak low level jet could keep winds between 5-10 KTS Sat night into early Sun morning.

Cotto

Marine

Issued at 1229 AM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

Light to moderate east to southeast winds are expected through early next week as the pressure gradient tightens. Winds at times could strengthen to 20 knots or slightly higher Sunday and Monday. In response to the stronger winds, seas will build to 3 to 6 feet by Sunday and possibly rise to around 7 feet over the offshore waters on Monday. Caution flags and/or Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed from late Saturday through late Monday. Winds relax and seas gradually subside Tuesday into Wednesday. Rain chances will return early next week as moisture from the Gulf moves in and an upper level trough moves across the Southern Plains.

Cotto