Alvarado, TX Weather

Key Messages

- Above normal temperatures will continue through the workweek, with occasional low rain chances mainly near and west of I-35.

- A change in the weather pattern is expected late this week, leading to higher rain chances on Friday and Saturday along with slightly cooler temperatures.

Short Term

(Tonight through Tuesday) Issued at 1255 AM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

The breakdown of the mid-level ridge axis will allow low rain chances to finally enter the short term portion of the forecast late this evening and tonight, while above normal temperatures persist. A southerly warm advection regime will continue to send increasing moisture content northward into West Texas and the Big Country today ahead of a compact mid-level impulse transiting New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle. This coincident moisture/lift should result in a broad area of showers and isolated embedded thunderstorms west of the CWA by this evening. Some of this activity may finally enter our western zones around or after midnight while gradually decaying, and meager instability should keep any thunder occurrences very sparse or perhaps even absent entirely. The chances for measurable precipitation overall is quite low, thus PoPs will be capped at no more than 20% overnight into Tuesday morning.

As the shortwave disturbance responsible for the overnight rain chances quickly pivots northeastward out of the area on Tuesday, rain chances will be rather slim in its wake as weak mid-level subsidence follows behind. However, continued warm/moist advection within the eastward-shifting low-level moist axis may still support very isolated shower/storm development on Tuesday afternoon mainly west of I-35. Low PoPs will be advertised through this period as well, but most areas should stay dry. Although the cirrus canopy associated with the shortwave will be exiting during the daytime, the increase in low-level moisture should culminate in more widespread low cloud cover, and highs will likely be held to the upper 70s and lower 80s as a result.

Long Term

(Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 1255 AM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

During the midweek period, we'll largely be positioned between storm systems within modest zonal flow aloft, while southerly low-level flow persists through the low-levels. This regime will maintain above normal temperatures with increasing humidity as high temperatures reach the low/mid 80s on a daily basis while dewpoints return to the upper 50s and 60s. Although large-scale lifting mechanisms will be absent, warm advection could support showery precip on Wednesday with coverage probably only reaching 10% at most.

A more pronounced pattern shift is still expected by the end of the workweek as a strong subtropical jet begins to impinge on the area from the west on Friday. Following multiple days of warm/moist advection, this storm system should be able to harness the anomalously moist warm sector to produce fairly widespread rainfall from Friday into Saturday. With the thermodynamic parameter space lacking significant instability, most of this activity looks to consist of beneficial rainfall at this time rather than a strong/severe convective event. Peak rain chances are currently from the daytime Friday until Saturday evening, with activity tending to taper off by Sunday. However, any small trajectory differences could still easily shift this timeline by ~24 hours in the coming days.

Aviation

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 529 AM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

There are minimal aviation concerns through the period with light southeast winds and VFR skies prevailing. A cirrus shield will continue to pass overhead this morning, with additional mid/high cloud decks arriving later this evening/tonight. All precipitation is expected to remain west of the TAF sites through Tuesday morning.