Narragansett Pier, RI Weather

What Has Changed

Small Craft Advisory issued for late Monday night through Tuesday morning. Post-frontal winds over the waters may gust to around 25 kt.

Key Messages

- Prolonged stretch of dry weather across southern New England, potentially lasting through Halloween. Afternoon temperatures moderate through tomorrow, followed by a brief cooldown Tuesday and Wednesday before milder weather returns late in the week.

Discussion

KEY MESSAGE 1...Prolonged stretch of dry weather across southern New England, potentially lasting through Halloween. Afternoon temperatures moderate through tomorrow, followed by a brief cooldown Tuesday and Wednesday before milder weather returns late in the week.

Radiational cooling expected once again tonight, though not as cold as last night given slightly warmer temperatures aloft. 925 mb temperatures reach around 12C overnight, then continue to improve through the day Monday a few more degrees (14C). Highs Monday are expected to reach the upper 60s and some clouds may move in ahead of an approaching cold front. This cold front is expected to be quite dry otherwise, given the persistent high pressure and dry air present. With its passage, winds shift more N to NW heading into Monday night and a mix of some low to high clouds move in, which will end up limiting radiational cooling. Lows Monday night are expected to generally be in the 30s and 40s.

High pressure will continue to govern Southern New England's weather through the upcoming workweek, leading to a continued stretch of dry and seasonable autumn weather. We get a brief cooldown on Tuesday in the wake of the cold front from Monday night; with 925 mb temps around +2 to +5C, highs mainly in the mid 50s. We get into a warming/modifying trend to temperatures through the rest of the workweek. By Thursday and Friday, highs could reach well into the 60s to lower 70s.

Another mostly dry cold front then passes to our north Friday night. This feature again looks to only bring some enhanced cloudiness for Friday night, but the chances for rainfall associated with this feature looks minimal. It will bring another shot of cool air for the weekend with blustery conditions, with temperatures falling back into the 50s to lower 60s for the weekend.

Aviation

Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

18z TAF Update...High confidence.

VFR conditions continue through Monday night outside some very localized/brief early morning ground fog patches late tonight/early Monday AM in the most prone locations. Localized seabreezes along the coast continue through the afternoon today with others seeing calm to light S to SW winds. Winds shift more W Monday morning with winds around 10 kt. Slightly higher winds possible closer to the coasts. Winds shift more NW-N Monday night, remaining around 5-10 kt.

KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF. Weak seabreeze continues through this afternoon, kicking back out around 22z.

KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF.