Oil City, PA Weather

What Has Changed

No changes to the forecast package or messaging.

Key Messages

1) High confidence in continued dry weather and above-noraml temperatures through the work week. Rain chances may finally return next weekend.

Discussion

KEY MESSAGE 1... New day, same message. High pressure remains in control, with dry weather highly likely through Saturday. The passage of a 500mb ridge axis will provide a small boost to already above- normal temperatures on Monday.

A dry frontal passage Monday night will provide some clouds and a minor temperature bump downward, but not enough moisture for precipitation chances. That boundary then returns north as a warm front through midweek, which will eventually push temperatures some 10 to 15 degrees above normal by Thursday. A shortwave crossing the Great Lakes Thursday night/Friday appears to still remain too far north for precipitation chances; a cloud increase is expected north of Pittsburgh.

There is still a decent model signal for an Ohio Valley shortwave next weekend that may finally break the dry spell on Sunday. The various ensemble members still show strength and timing differences, so rainfall could get pushed later once again, but a wetter post-Halloween pattern is certainly possible.

Aviation

VFR through the TAF period save for low probability river valley fog resulting in MVFR to LIFR visibility Monday morning (11z-13z). Wind remains light (with some speed increase Monday afternoon out of the W/SW) with passing cirrus later this evening into tomorrow. These conditions will continue into tomorrow evening.

Outlook... High pressure ensures VFR and dry weather through at least Thursday with rising temperature and increasing cirrus reducing morning river valley fog risk.