Baldwin, NY Weather

What Has Changed

Small craft advisories have expanded in area and have been extended in time into tonight, Friday and Friday night. Coastal flood statement for Southern Nassau for early Friday morning with brief minor coastal flooding.

Key Messages

1) Dry conditions and gradually warming daytime temperatures are expected Friday through Monday. Dry conditions continue through much of next week.

2) For Friday night into the weekend, locations within our region (mainly across interior NE NJ, the Lower Hudson Valley, Southern CT, parts of Eastern Suffolk NY) there will be frost potential for late night and early morning.

3) Minor coastal flooding possible in back bays of Nassau County NY for the morning high tide. For subsequent high tide cycles through early Saturday, additional minor coastal flooding possible for the same location.

Key Message 1

Daytime high temperatures trend from below normal Friday to near normal Saturday and then more above normal Sunday and Monday. Dry conditions are forecast to prevail.

Mid levels from numerical weather prediction models indicate rising heights into the weekend. Trough exits east of the Canadian Maritimes with ridge moving in from the west. The ridging weakens late this weekend into early next week. At the surface, the low pressure associated with Josephine moves well out into the Northern Atlantic and east of Canadian Maritimes through Friday as high pressure builds in from the north across our local region.

Strong surface high pressure will be the main feature heading into the weekend with prevailing dry conditions. The pressure gradient will gradually weaken allowing for lighter winds. This will further allow for greater daytime insolation and greater nighttime radiational cooling with a more vast range in temperature between max and min.

Surface high pressure weakens and shifts farther south and west Sunday night into early next week. Dry conditions prevail through this weekend and into next week despite a cold front moving across late Monday into Monday night. Temperatures warm up for daytime highs this weekend and into early next week. Warmest day looks to be Monday with models showing relatively highest 850mb temperatures near 11 to 13 degrees C. Some locations are forecast to reach near 70 degrees Fahrenheit for Monday's highs. That is the warmest day of the forecast period through next week.

.KEY MESSAGE 2... With more radiational cooling each night, temperatures in outlying areas and rural sections will drop further.

Frost is expected to develop in these areas, mainly across the northern half of the forecast area. For tonight, patchy frost is forecast across parts of the interior and will be limited in spatial extent due to winds staying up in the boundary layer. Lows tonight range from mid 30s to upper 40s for much of the area.

Outlook For 06z Saturday Through Tuesday

Friday night through Tuesday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90