Santa Teresa, NM Weather

Key Messages

Issued at 540 AM MDT Sun Oct 25 2026

- A few storms may again turn severe over east-central and southeast areas this afternoon. Large hail and damaging winds will be the main threats, with a lower risk of an isolated tornado.

- River flooding will continue over parts of central and northwest New Mexico today.

- Moderate-to-locally-heavy rainfall will return along and east of the central mountain chain today and tonight, but the risk of flash flooding will extend westward to the continental divide of northwest New Mexico, and the West-Central Highlands, due to saturated soil there.

Short Term

(Today through Tonight) Issued at 1223 AM MDT Sun Oct 25 2026

An upper level low pressure system will track northeastward across the Four Corners and CO today and tonight, while continuing to draw very rich subtropical moisture northward over northern and central NM. Widespread showers and thunderstorms are forecast to persist today through this evening on the eastern plains, then coverage of precip and rainfall intensity will begin to trend downward there. Farther west to the Four Corners, the continental divide of west central NM, and to the lower Rio Grande Valley, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are forecast to persist through this evening. GEFS ensemble PWATS are forecast to peak this morning around 160-300 percent of normal along and east of the central mountain chain. With actual PWATs around 0.80-1.15" there, stronger storms will again be capable of producing locally heavy rainfall at rates near and over 1"/hr today and tonight. Farther west to the continental divide, PWATs will vary around 0.80-0.60", suggesting rain rates up to 1"/hr in stronger cells. However, with this forecast package we issued a Flash Flood Watch for parts of north central, northwest, and west central NM, because the ground is so saturated from the past two days of heavy rainfall that it will only take moderate rainfall to cause flooding problems there. Will let the day shift assess antecedent moisture and issue a Flash Flood Watch for parts of the eastern plains for Sunday afternoon and night, if needed. Additional rain amounts today through tonight are progged to reach around 0.25-2.0" along and east of the central mountain chain, with mostly lower amounts farther west. NBM 90th Percentile QPF, which indicates what a few of the higher rainfall totals will probably end up being, reaches 2-4" on the eastern plains, with some localized 2" amounts farther west to the east slopes of the Jemez Mountains and upper Rio Grande Valley. In addition, some storms will probably turn severe again today, especially from the central valley eastward. Large hail and damaging winds will be the main threats, but an isolated tornado will also be possible.

Further, a few to six inches of snow are forecast on the highest peaks of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains today through tonight, where 700 mb temperatures look to bottom out around +2 to +4 C. Otherwise, high temperatures across the forecast area will continue to trend cooler today with readings varying from a few to around 10 degrees below 30-year averages.

Long Term

(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 1223 AM MDT Sun Oct 25 2026

On Monday, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue over east central and southeast areas, where moist southeast low-level return flow will continue as a weak trailing disturbance crosses aloft. PWATs are forecast to trend downward, so the risk of additional flash flooding will be low on Monday. Otherwise, drier and warmer weather is forecast Monday through midweek as an active storm track north of NM draws dry west and southwest flow over the forecast area. High temperatures will climb near 1991-2020 averages areawide starting Tuesday, then as much as 8 degrees above the averages on the eastern plains Wednesday. Models have come into better agreement on an upper level low pressure system dropping southward along the Pacific NW coast during the latter half of the week. This system will draw a rich return flow of Gulf moisture into the forecast area starting Wednesday night with increasing coverage of showers and thunderstorms over southern areas Thursday. Showers and storms will increase in coverage areawide Friday and Friday night as a short-wave trough crosses NM from the southwest.

Aviation

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 540 AM MDT Sun Oct 25 2026

Widespread showers and thunderstorms will continue to stream north and northeastward across the eastern plains today through tonight. Meanwhile, scattered to numerous cells will develop westward to the continental divide of northwest NM today until midnight tonight. Storms will move toward the north and northeast at speeds around 30-45 KT. A few storms along and east of the Rio Grande will probably turn severe this afternoon and evening by producing large hail and damaging winds. Widespread MVFR and IFR conditions in low clouds, fog, and areas of precipitation are forecast across eastern NM today through tonight.