Lee Acres, NM Weather

Key Messages

Issued at 132 PM MDT Sat Oct 24 2026

- Severe thunderstorms return this afternoon and evening. Large hail and damaging winds will be the main threats, with a lower risk of isolated tornadoes.

- River flooding will continue over parts of central and northwest New Mexico today and tonight.

- Heavy rainfall will impact central and eastern parts of the forecast area the rest of today and tonight with a continued risk of flash flooding. The risk of heavy rainfall and flash flooding will persist east of the central mountain chain Sunday and Sunday night.

Short Term

(This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 132 PM MDT Sat Oct 24 2026

An upper-level low currently centered over the California and Arizona border will track northeastward across the Southwest today. Anomalous moisture, favorable upper-level forcing, and daytime heating will support more widespread showers and storms across the state the remainder of the day, with activity already ongoing across portions of western, central, and northern New Mexico at time of writing. The greatest severe weather potential this afternoon and evening will favor south, central, and southeastern zones, where sufficient instability (~1000 J/kg CAPE) and strong deep-layer shear (40-50 knots) could support supercells capable of producing large hail and damaging outflow wind gusts, and perhaps an isolated tornado.

Heavy rain and flash flooding will also continue to be a significant concern through tonight, especially across central and eastern portions of the state. Forecast PWATs are roughly 2-5 standard deviations above normal in these areas. Widespread rainfall amounts of 0.50 to up to 3 inches are possible along and east of the central mountain chain, with locally higher totals up to 4-4.5 inches across northeastern New Mexico. Additional rainfall may exacerbate ongoing flooding concerns, particularly where storms repeatedly affect the same locations or move over already saturated soils. Even brief heavy downpours could produce dangerous runoff in urban areas, arroyos, low-water crossings, and recent burn scar areas. The current Flash Flood Watch remains in effect, with our far eastern zones and the Upper Tularosa Valley now included in the Watch. Given the potential for another round of heavy rainfall Sunday, additional watch coverage will be likely by the next forecast package.

Speaking of Sunday, the upper low will continue its northeastward trek into the Four Corners and Colorado, shifting the moisture axis and primary focus for shower and storm activity toward eastern New Mexico while drier air starts to spread into western and west-central areas. The greatest flash flooding concerns will likely extend across portions of northeast and southeast New Mexico, where heavy rainfall from the remainder of today could increase vulnerability to any additional precipitation. Scattered precipitation coverage will continue across central areas while overall activity across the west diminishes. Snow accumulations across the highest peaks remains a possibility through Sunday night, and temperatures, specifically MaxTs, will generally be trending below average.

Long Term

(Monday through Friday) Issued at 132 PM MDT Sat Oct 24 2026

Showers and storms may linger across the east-southeast on Monday due to residual moisture and a passing disturbance. However PWATs will be gradually declining, reducing the overall flash flooding threat. Drier air, increasing subsidence from weak ridging, and west-southwesterly flow are expected to promoting warmer and drier trends by midweek. The next system looks to approach the western CONUS by late week into next weekend, and the aforementioned southwesterly flow will likely be able to tap into more anomalous moisture to promote increasing rain chances. Long term models suggest modest shear, but instability doesn't look as favorable as the last couple of days. There is still a good bit of time until we reach this point in the forecast, so expect greater details and forecast refinement in the coming days.

Aviation

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1139 AM MDT Sat Oct 24 2026

Widespread showers and thunderstorms are ongoing across western, central, and north-central portions of New Mexico late this morning. Activity is progged to diminish in far western zones and propagate eastward over the course of the afternoon and evening hours. Some thunderstorms may turn severe this afternoon and evening, with the primary risks being large hail and damaging wind and a lower chance of an isolated tornado. The greatest severe threat will be over central, south central, and southeast areas. Storms will move fairly quickly toward the north-northeast at around 30-45 KT. While overall coverage of precipitation will decrease west of the central mountain chain around 04Z or so, light showers will linger through the overnight hours across the east, with the potential for brief MVFR/IFR CIGs and VSBYs at KROW.