Grand Island, NE Weather

Key Messages

- A rather soggy 18-24 hours is underway, with widespread rain showers common especially overnight through Monday AM, then generally more scattered activity Monday afternoon before most of our area dries out by sunset and remains dry through the rest of Monday night.

- As for rain totals through Monday afternoon (including what has already fallen), generally the northwestern 2/3rds of our area (including Tri Cities) should pick up between 0.50-1.00" (spotty higher totals to at least 1.25"), while roughly the southeastern 1/3 of our area (especially far southeast counties such as Thayer/Mitchell) should see lesser amounts with many places under 0.25"

- High temperatures this week will generally range from the 50s to the 70s with lows in the upper 20s to upper 50s.

Discussion

Issued at 214 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

An upper level trough is over much of the Rocky Mountains and extends eastward over portions of Nebraska and Kansas. This has brought an increase in upper lift over the region which has resulted in rain showers approaching the forecast area from the west. Winds across south central and central Nebraska and north central Kansas are mainly out of the east at around 5 to 10 MPH. High temperatures today are expected to range from the 50s to the 70s. The rain showers and maybe some isolated thunderstorms will spread eastward across the forecast area this afternoon through tonight. Low temperatures tonight will mostly be in the 40s and 50s. Some upper 30s may occur across northwestern portions of Valley County.

The upper trough will be over the region on Monday with winds beginning to switch to the northwest and north across western and northern portions of the area. High temperatures are expected to range from the 50s to the 70s although there is some uncertainty due to the timing and positioning of the cold front. Rain showers and thunderstorms will continue across the area Monday into Monday evening. Rain will be coming to an end Monday night. Western and northwestern portions of the forecast area are expected to see the highest rainfall amounts with this system (around 1 to near 1.40 inches). Low temperatures Monday night are expected to range from as low as the upper 20s to the low 50s.

A surface high will remain near the area on Tuesday allowing for temperatures to remain cooler (highs ranging from the 50s to low 70s). Light rain may develop across the area Tuesday evening and night (15% to 30% chance) with a broad upper trough over the region. Wednesday appears to be dry across the area with high temperatures in the 60s and 70s. Similar conditions are expected Thursday. Rain chances increase (up to around 60%) on Friday and Saturday as upper lift increases over the region. High temperatures in the 60s and 70s are expected Friday with highs mainly in the 60s on Saturday.

Aviation

Issued at 648 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports: - General overview (including winds): Except for these first 2-5 hours this evening, the vast majority of the period is likely to see sub-VFR ceiling and/or visibility, with increasingly-high confidence in several hours of MVFR/IFR ceiling and probably some hours with LIFR too. In addition, especially these first 17 hours (through Monday AM) will see widespread rain shower activity, with a combination of any heavier downpours and some light fog also reducing visibility to MVFR/IFR at times. Winds should not be a big concern, with sustained speeds through the vast majority of the period at-or-below 11KT as direction transitions from mainly northeasterly through Monday morning, then turning more southerly for part of the afternoon before finally shifting to out of the west-northwest later in the afternoon behind a passing cold front.

- Ceiling/visibility/precipitation details: Right out of the gate this evening, widespread showers are occurring and should continue fairly frequently (with only occasional/limited breaks) right on through the night and Monday morning. As a result, have maintained prevailing -SHRA groups, despite the likelihood for at least brief breaks in rainfall. Also right out of the gate, both KGRI/KEAR are hanging onto no worse than low-end VFR ceiling, but this should not last too much longer, with KEAR currently expected to drop to MVFR by around 02Z and KGRI around 05Z. Thereafter, further deterioration to multiple hours of least IFR ceiling (and possibly LIFR) is likely...currently pegged to start around 04Z KEAR/07Z KGRI. As usual, visibility is more of a "wild card", but have a mix of prevailing MVFR/IFR through much of the overnight into Monday morning due to a mix of rain and perhaps lighter fog.

For the final 6-7 hours of the period (Monday afternoon), shower activity is still possible at times but should be much less "constant" and thus have went with only "vicinity shower" (VCSH) at this time. As for ceiling/visibility, there is fairly high confidence in a return to VFR visibility, but ceiling is another story as various models/guidance are fairly insistent on keeping at least MVFR (if not IFR) intact through the entire afternoon. Although confidence is only medium at best, have opted to tentatively improve prevailing ceiling from IFR to MVFR 20Z onward.

Gid Watches

NE...None. KS...None.