Cavalier, ND Weather

Key Messages

- Dry conditions with above normal temperatures through Thursday.

- Windy Friday and Saturday, fire concerns remain low due to likely rain.

- Chances for rain increase Friday into the weekend.

Update

Issued at 620 AM CDT Tue Oct 20 2026

Clear skies prevail this morning across the entire region. Temperatures are in the upper 30s to low 40s with winds ranging from 5-7 mph. Winds will gradually increase later this morning out of the south, reaching 10-20 mph by midday to early afternoon. The forecast remains on track to see highs in the 60s to low 70s this afternoon.

Discussion

Issued at 141 PM CDT Mon Oct 19 2026

...Synopsis...

General CONUS riding will persist through the work week before troughing off the southern California coast begins to move ashore by Thursday morning. Significant differences begin to emerge among cluster regarding to the speed of the trough ejection into the plains with some as early Friday and some slower solutions bringing the main trough into the Dakotas on Saturday. Either way rain chances increasing this weekend but likley not a soaker as probs for greater than a quarter inch peak at about 50% with other clusters as low as 30%. Other notable features through the period will be strong winds Friday and Saturday though RH does not look to be particularly concerning so would be simple wind headlines if warranted. A weak shortwave moving over the top of the ridge through Canada will again bring a weak frontal boundary/wind shift through on Wednesday, but not much impact expected. Temperatures will remain above seasonal averages throughout the period with the ECMWF EFI showing only more of a warm signal as we head into next weekend and flow turns southwesterly.

- Rain chances/Wind

Rain could come in multiple waves depending how nebulous or well organized the shortwave activity is that emanates from the southwest flow late this week. Overall the most robust QPF looks to stay to our north and west per clusters but still seeing hints of an EML advecting north with MUCAPE in the hundreds bringing thunder chances. This would make amounts much more variable but still would expect amounts to remain under an inch even if thunderstorms do manifest given the ensemble 95th percentile accumulation peaking below 1" through Sunday. With the numerous waves will also come enhanced surface flow with all 3 ensemble systems (GEFS, EC, Canadian) also showing a strong cold front later in the day Friday. NBM QMD max wind gusts shows gusts Friday/Saturday in the 40-50 mph range. EFI also has some shading in the 0.5-0.7 range which indicates above normal climo values but maybe not approaching headlines. We will see how this plays out.

Overall enjoy a few days of 60s to 70s for highs this week as they will become increasingly fleeting in the coming weeks with seasonal norms dropping into the 40s by the end of the month for highs. Finally, after a widespread morning of temps in the upper 20s last night we are officially ending frost and freeze headlines for the season.

Aviation

Issued at 620 AM CDT Tue Oct 20 2026

VFR conditions prevail through the period at all TAF sites. Winds increase out of the south this morning at 10-15 knots with gusts of 20-25 knots during peak mixing this afternoon. Winds begin to diminish this evening, then shift to the northwest during the late evening and overnight period in response to a cold front.