Black Mountain, NC Weather

What Has Changed

Temperatures were raised a degree or two for Saturday.

Key Messages

1. Dry weather expected for the next seven days. Temperatures are expected to cool down below normal for the weekend, but should climb back to around normal by the middle of next week.

Discussion

Key message 1: Dry weather expected for the next seven days. Temperatures are expected to cool down below normal for the weekend, but should climb back to around normal by the middle of next week.

A high amplitude blocking pattern will persist through the weekend, with the western Carolinas and northeast Georgia remaining under the northerly flow aloft with the upper ridge axis to our west. The ridge will support a large sfc high over eastern Canada that moves into position over the St. Lawrence Valley tonight, which will support cold air damming east of the mtns developing early Saturday. The guidance continues to indicate an unusually dry cold air damming wedge with plenty of bright sunshine that helps keep temps only 5-10 degrees below normal for Saturday. The only clue that we are in a wedge regime will be the breezy northeast winds outside the mtns. Low temps early Sunday will be similarly cool, but any freeze potential will be limited to ridgetops above 6k feet. Frost will depend on whether or not sfc winds go light/variable. After that, no significant weather threats are apparent. The pattern will become more progressive and should deamplify Sunday night into Monday. Ridging will remain in place through mid-week. Air mass modification should result in temps making it back to normal from Monday into Tuesday. A short wave may cross the region during the middle part of the week, but will be moisture-starved, so no precip will be forecast.

Aviation

At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR prevails for another TAF period. Winds largely light N to NE if not calm this morning. Previous expectation of mountain valley fog appears to be on track, and retained TEMPO for MVFR vsby and very patchy low stratus at KAVL near daybreak. Winds should strengthen from the NE by 13-15z, generally 7 to 9 kt, though gusts do not look frequent enough to mention. KAVL may try to flip to SE at times this aftn, so just went VRB there given light speeds. As high builds south along the Eastern Seaboard tonight, NE flow will be reinforced east of the mountains and light SE should begin to prevail at KAVL. Could see a few clouds below FL030 begin to develop at KHKY prior to 06z, and also at KCLT by around 12z. At KCLT the more likely scenario for low clouds in this regime would as diurnal warming occurs after sunrise. For now omitted any low cloud mention but will consider including it there in the next set, at/after 12z Sat.

Outlook: Dry and VFR through the middle of next week outside of the potential for mountain valley fog and low stratus each morning.