Four Seasons, MO Weather

Key Messages

- Above normal temperatures into or through next week. Highs in the middle 70s to around 80 and dry weather are expected through at least the middle of next week.

Short Term

Issued at 255 AM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

A high pressure ridge is dominating the eastern half of the country with a cutoff low moving through the desert southwest. This high pressure is bringing height rises and clear skies to the Ozarks with a light southeasterly wind. A slight increase in upper-level moisture will result in increased cloud cover throughout the day today, but there will still be plenty of clearing for highs to reach the upper 70s (and low 80s for some). Southerly flow will add a WAA component, also contributing to the highs 10+ degrees above normal for late October. Lows will also be warm (climatologically speaking), especially with cloud cover increasing tonight -- generally in the upper 40s in south- central Missouri up to the mid-50s in SW MO/SE KS. Sunday will largely be a repeat of today with slightly more cloud cover.

Long Term

Issued at 255 AM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

To start the workweek, shortwave energy ejecting out of the southwest will result in very minor height falls that act to decrease our highs by a few degrees, putting them closer to the mid- 70s. Moisture will be too meager for any meaningful precipitation chances, though the NBM puts a small pocket of 20% PoPs in eastern Kansas Monday night. All in all, the impact of the shortwave will be minor, and we will be back to regularly scheduled highs in the upper 70s by Wednesday.

Global models essentially depict the low pressure system currently in the desert southwest lifting sharply northwest of Missouri over the course of the week and impacting the southern Plains and Midwest very little. After the shortwave moves out Wednesday, we return to a zonal/slightly ridged pattern until potentially late week as some disorganized shortwave energy trails in the wake of the more dominant troughing that lifted to the north. Models begin to diverge quite a bit on this scenario at this lead time, and while this could be the next most probable rain maker for the area over Halloweekend, there is little certainty at this time. If it pans out, we could also see a slight decrease in temperatures in addition to rain, but such a weak synoptic feature likely wouldn't lower highs by much. The NBM currently buys in to the precipitation scenario, and has an interquartile range for highs on Halloween between 67 and 75 for Springfield (63 being the normal high). We will be watching this feature closely as models are able to better resolve it with shorter lead time.

Aviation

Issued at 612 AM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

VFR conditions expectd. Light SSE winds remaining under 10 kts. High cloud cover increases over the course of the period.