Aurora, MO Weather

Key Messages

- Above normal temperatures with a warming trend into late week. Highs in the middle to upper 70s, near 80 are likely into the weekend. Mostly dry weather expected to persist.

- Medium to high confidence in above normal temperatures to persist through the end of October.

Short Term

Issued at 100 PM CDT Tue Oct 20 2026

Today-Tonight: A broad ridge continues to be prevalent across the Plains, with weak shortwave energy translating through the flow. Moisture availability remains limited, and thus any rain chances with each passing wave. KSGF 12Z RAOB depicts substantial dry air aloft through the mid levels. For the remainder of today through tonight, some isolated sprinkles/virga or a light shower are possible, though chances remain at 10-15%. Otherwise, another mild October day with highs near normal, around 70. Lows tonight fall into the middle to upper 40s, with the lowest temperatures focused across the valleys of the eastern Ozarks.

Wednesday: Weak energy continues to translate through the region into Wednesday, with additional low chances (10-15%) for sprinkles or a light shower. However, most areas remain dry once again with little to no measurable precipitation expected. Highs a bit warmer on Wednesday in the middle 70s.

Long Term

Issued at 100 PM CDT Tue Oct 20 2026

Thursday-Monday: The ridge and associated high pressure amplify into late week, supporting further warming across the area. Highs through the weekend approach upper 70s to near 80 in most locations as supported by 850mb temperatures around 13-16C. Additionally, less cloud cover is expected through the upcoming weekend as any shortwave energy becomes displaced well west of the region. This period of above normal temperatures (5 to 10 degrees) will be accompanied by dry weather through the weekend. Despite the warm and dry conditions, we are currently not expecting any elevated fire weather concerns through the weekend given the lack of a strong wind component. Nonetheless, potential fire weather will need to be monitored closely as we progress into mid-Fall with drought conditions persisting.

Ensemble guidance hint at a potential pattern change into next week, though confidence remains low given the variability. Further uncertainty exist in the temperatures into next week as NBM interquartile spreads increase to around 15 degrees. However, even the lower quartile would still support above normal temperatures. Thus, confidence remains medium to high on above normal temperatures through the end of October.

Aviation

Issued at 610 PM CDT Tue Oct 20 2026

VFR conditions expected to prevail through the TAF period. Southeasterly winds <6 kts will be so light they're more variable than southeasterly at the surface. Scattered mid-level clouds may produce some sprinkles aloft across the region at times through the TAF period, but the expected sprinkles are not expected to reach the ground due to the dry low-level air mass in place.