Williamsburg, KY Weather

Key Messages

- Dry weather with mainly clear skies, mild days, and chilly nights will persist into early next week.

- Light, patchy frost may develop early this morning and again late tonight in sheltered valleys away from lakes, rivers, and larger creeks.

Update

Issued at 135 AM EDT WED OCT 21 2026

No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td grids. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the SAFs and zones.

UPDATE Issued at 1103 PM EDT TUE OCT 20 2026

Ridge temperatures are running notably milder than valleys (about a 15 deg F spread currently), and based on MOS guidance and obs from last night, have raised the min temp forecast for ridges just a bit.

Long Term

(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 158 PM EDT TUE OCT 20 2026

Tranquil weather looks to continue through the long term period, and with a fairly stagnant pattern in place, weather will change very little from day to day. Aloft, a closed low will initially be located off the coast of the Northeast, with midlevel troughing over the eastern US; meanwhile, a strong and expansive ridge will sit over the central CONUS. Over the course of the period, this trough will gradually break down, allowing the ridge to expand eastward closer to our area, though eastern Kentucky still looks to be under the influence of ridging through early next week. Thus, at the surface, models are in good agreement that high pressure will dominate, keeping weather uneventful through the forecast period. With such a dry air mass in place, even clouds will be hard to come by through Saturday. Thus, expect plenty of sunshine and high temperatures near average in the upper 60s and low 70s. Each night, clear skies and a weak pressure gradient will favor the development of ridge valley temperatures splits, accompanied by typical valley fog. MOS guidance suggests that lows will fall into the upper 30s in sheltered valleys and the low 40s in most other locations, and this seems reasonable given this pattern.

By early next week, a few clouds do look to return, associated with increasing atmospheric moisture as the ridge expands eastward and midlevel flow shifts from northerly to westerly. North of the area, a trough will attempt to dig into the Midwest; however, our persistent ridge will prevent this trough from pushing into our area, even as it flattens a bit. At the surface, an area of low pressure associated with this trough will translate east into Quebec, with a cold front extending through the Great Lakes region. However, given the upper level pattern and persistent surface high pressure, this front is not expected to make it into Kentucky by the end of the period. Model spread does increase by Tuesday, with some disagreement regarding how quickly the ridge breaks down. Even so, the most favored outcome at this time is yet another pleasant fall day, with PoPs only peaking in the very low single digits.

Aviation

(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night) ISSUED AT 155 AM EDT WED OCT 21 2026

Fog will bring IFR or worse conditions in many river valley locations early this morning, but it is not expected to affect any TAF sites. Otherwise, VFR conditions with clear skies and light winds will prevail through the aviation period.