Tonganoxie, KS Weather

Key Messages

- Above normal temperatures through the week, but trending closer to normal for the weekend.

- Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday.

- Scattered to widespread showers, possibly a few thunderstorms, Friday through Sunday.

Discussion

Issued at 149 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

Upper-level ridging will shift eastward and become less amplified Monday into Tuesday. This will will allow a short wave trough to move out of Mexico and southwestern Texas and into the Middle to Lower Missouri valley by Tuesday evening. Forcing associated with this shortwave may be enough to wring out the marginal moisture available to the system. As a result, isolated to scattered showers, and potentially a thunderstorm or two, look possible during the day across eastern Kansas and western Missouri. The potential for measurable rainfall is about 20-30%. The potential for any storms is still very low and generally less than 10%. So, while there is some potential, it's more than likely just going to be showers moving through, if there is any precipitation.

Otherwise, above normal temperatures will continue. For the Kansas City area, normal high temperatures range from 63 on Monday, to 60 by Sunday. Forecast highs on Monday are in the upper 70s, about 15 degrees above normal for this time of year. Temperatures drop off slightly on Tuesday with the shortwave and associated cloud cover and precipitation chances moving into the area through the day. For the middle part of the work week, while the ridging remains mostly situated southeast of the region, persistent southerly flow around the ridging/ surface high to our southeast, will maintain warm advection across the Southern and Central Plains. So it looks likely we'll see highs rebound back into the upper 70s to potentially lower 80s, about 15-20 degrees above normal. Late in the week, precipitation chances start to increase, with scattered to widespread rainfall by Saturday. Thursday, a front sags southward into the area, pushed southward by a shortwave tracking across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest. That front interacts with increasing moisture from the persistent southerly flow to give us our increasing precipitation chances. For the weekend, a series of waves moves through the area, with front still in the vicinity. With broad upper forcing, the boundary in the area, and moisture available, we should see scattered to widespread showers Friday night into Saturday. Right now, it looks like a 40-60% chance for rain from Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening, with decreasing chances after midnight. So umbrellas may be needed for anyone outside during that time frame. Still, though it looks like we'll see scattered to widespread precipitation, rain amounts look relatively low through the weekend. For the 48 hour period ending at 6 am Sunday morning, there is roughly a 1 in 3 (30-35%) chance for rain amounts exceeding 1 inch and just over a coin flip (50-60%) for exceeding half an inch.

Aviation

Issued at 1159 AM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast. Scattered to broken high-level clouds will stream over the area with light southerly surface winds around 5kts through the entire forecast period.

Eax Watches

MO...None. KS...None.