Ellinwood, KS Weather

Key Messages

- Above average temperatures are forecast through the upcoming week.

- Rain chances possible late this afternoon through Monday in central KS with chances increasing in south-central Monday night through Tuesday morning.

- Additional rain chances likely late week into next weekend.

Discussion

Issued at 223 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

An upper level trough is currently over the Central Great Basin and Southwest US with upper ridging over the Middle and Lower Mississippi Valley and into the Ohio and Tennessee Valley. An upper low is digging off the coast of the Pacific Northwest. At the surface, a front extends from the Great Lakes through central Iowa and into central Kansas. Scattered showers are ongoing in western Kansas in an area of 850-700mb WAA. This activity will continue to move north-northeast late this afternoon through tonight, affecting central KS. Precipitable water values in this airmass are up to 1.25", leading to effective rain showers. Thunderstorms look to be unlikely as guidance suggests instability values generally under 150 J/kg, though a few claps of thunder cannot be ruled out. Minimal impacts are expected with up to 0.5 inches possible mainly in Russell and Barton counties.

By Monday morning, the upper trough over the Central Great Basin will propagate into the Central Rockies and then into the Central Plains by late Monday afternoon. This will keep rain chances possible in central KS from Monday morning through the afternoon with chances increasing in south-central KS Monday night into Tuesday morning especially as another weak shortwave trough lifts north from Texas. Severe weather is not anticipated with any of this activity given the lack of instability. For temperatures, highs will continue to be above normal with readings in the lower 70s in central KS to the upper 70s in southeast KS on Monday afternoon. For Tuesday afternoon, highs in the lower 70s are expected across the area.

By mid week, well above normal temperatures will return with highs in the upper 70s to near 80 from Wednesday to Friday. Lows are forecast to be in the upper 50s to lower 60s on Wednesday and Thursday night. Additional rain chances may be possible on Wednesday night and Thursday night as 700mb WAA persists across the area. Rain chances will increase areawide on Friday and into the weekend as another upper wave slides across the region. Stay tuned as we continue to refine this forecast.

Aviation

Issued at 632 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

Scattered rain showers with cigs above 5000ft will affect central Kansas this evening along with a weak frontal boundary sinking slowly southward. Meanwhile VFR conditions will prevail for south central/southeast Kansas over the next 24hrs with light south winds.

Ict Watches

None.