Marine Corps Base Hawaii - MCBH, HI Weather

Synopsis

Light trade winds will produce rather dry conditions over most areas into tonight. Chances for heavy showers will increase during the day on Tuesday as developing low pressure and deep tropical moisture approach the islands from the southwest. The trough, or possibly a weak low, will pass over the island chain Tuesday night through Wednesday night, bringing the threat of heavy flooding rainfall and thunderstorms. The trough will weaken Thursday and Friday, though humid conditions with a chance of heavy showers may linger. Trade winds may briefly redevelop Saturday, though unsettled conditions could return Sunday.

Short Term Update

Westerly winds have increased across the high summits of the Big Island, where a Wind Advisory has been issued through tonight. Winds on the summits are expected to briefly diminish Tuesday, then increase again Tuesday night and Wednesday, possibly to High Wind Warning strength.

Prev Discussion

Issued at 945 AM HST Mon Oct 26 2026 One last day of fair trade wind weather is in store. Trade winds will be rather weak as a broad and deep surface low meandering about 950 miles to the northeast keeps surface ridging displaced far northwest of the state. As a result, the local pressure gradient and the easterly trades will be weak. The atmosphere remains quite stable due to a ridge aloft centered just south of the islands. Dew points are comfortably hovering in the mid 60s, and the overnight soundings revealed an inversion based between 5,000 to 6,500 feet. Most islands will experience minimal windward rainfall today, with afternoon sea breezes leading to clouds and isolated showers over leeward terrain. The exception continues to be Big Island, where a small pocket of moisture remains hung up along the windward coast and should produce slightly more showers.

Little will change overnight, though increasing high clouds will signal a developing heavy rain threat. While Tropical Depression Olana will remain far to the west and not directly impact the area, a trough extending eastward from system will slowly drift to within 300 miles southwest of Hawaii tonight. Meanwhile, an upper level trough, now centered over 1,000 miles west of Kauai, will advance eastward, tapping moisture aloft from thunderstorms along the surface trough and sending increased high clouds overhead.

Chances for heavy flooding rainfall and thunderstorms will increase during the day on Tuesday. The upper level trough will edge closer to the state, and the entrance region of a jet stream aloft along the eastern flank of the feature will steadily erode the ridge aloft early Tuesday and then provide large scale ascent over the region later in the day. This will pull the surface trough toward the islands, spreading a deep tropical airmass with precipitable water in excess of 2 inches throughout the day. Chances for widespread rain should remain relatively low Tuesday morning as the Flood Watch goes into effect, but as moisture increases later in the day, the flood threat will slowly increase.

The flood threat will be greatest Tuesday night through Wednesday night. The jet stream aloft will provide its strongest ascent over the region, pulling the surface trough over the state and possibly generating an elongated surface low near or over the islands. A deep tropical airmass with precipitable water in excess of 2 inches will accompany this system and provide ample fuel for heavy rainfall. The GFS and ECMWF show the surface trough stretching across the central portion of the island chain, favoring Oahu and Maui County for the greatest rainfall. However, all islands will have a heavy rain threat.

The threat of heavy rainfall will diminish Thursday and Friday. The jet stream aloft will lift to the north, and weak upper level anticyclonic flow will develop, ceasing the large scale ascent over the islands. A weak surface trough and ample moisture will likely linger, providing some chance for heavy showers that could require the Flood Watch to be extended.

Aviation

Issued at 945 AM HST Mon Oct 26 2026 A gentle trade wind pattern is expected today with localized sea breezes developing across many leeward areas. An area of moisture lingering around the Big Island will bring some showers throughout the day today with periods of MVFR conditions possible mainly over windward Big Island. Otherwise, VFR conditions should prevail.

A band of deep tropical moisture will arrive from the southwest Tuesday and will likely bring periods heavy rain and isolated thunderstorms. MVFR to IFR conditions should be expected at many areas across the state starting as early as Tuesday afternoon and persisting into Wednesday.

No AIRMETs in effect, but we may need AIRMET Sierra for mountain obscuration over parts of windward Big Island later today.