El Jebel, CO Weather

Key Messages

- Flooding is ongoing across portions of southeast Utah and southwest Colorado, and is expected to continue through Saturday.

- While some rivers have crested, some rivers will experience their crest Saturday.

- Isolated to scattered showers and storms are expected Saturday. They will be capable of producing moderate to heavy rainfall that could result in additional flooding.

- A few storms may be capable of producing strong winds and large hail Saturday afternoon.

Discussion

Issued at 1044 PM MDT Fri Oct 23 2026

ONGOING FLOODING WITH MORE RAINFALL THIS WEEKEND:

The low pressure system responsible for pulling in the tropical moisture that resulted in the abundant rainfall the last couple days is sitting over southern California and Nevada. This low pressure system is expected to move into Arizona by Saturday afternoon and lift northeast across Utah and western Colorado during the day on Sunday and exiting to the northeast by Monday morning. As this happens, the low pressure system will pull another round of moisture around the low from the southeast on Saturday. The latest hi-res CAMs indicate convection developing across southeast Utah and southwest Colorado overnight into Saturday morning with more scattered to widespread showers and storms spreading further north Saturday afternoon and evening, favoring areas along and south of I-70. While the deep tropical moisture has vacated the region, PWAT anomalies with this push of moisture are projected to be around 200 percent of normal, which while not as high as a few days ago, is still enough to cause issues and heavy rainfall. The main concern is that many areas are already saturated from previous rainfall and there is ongoing flooding with many rivers and creeks running high. So any additional rainfall, especially where stronger convection occurs could result in more flooding and continuation of ongoing flooding. The rainfall amounts through Sunday are expected to range from 0.5-1.0 inches along the highway 160 corridor with slightly higher amounts in the mountains and lower amounts outside of southwest Colorado. While we could see gusty winds and hail with a few storms, the main concern is heavy rainfall. Hi res CAMs appear to show convection winding down Saturday night with some isolated showers lingering. Showers become more isolated to scattered on Sunday as the low pressure lifts overhead, but these showers are expected to be lighter than previous few days. Conditions begin to dry out Monday as this low lifts northeast over the Plains.

DRYING OUT NEXT WEEK:

As we move towards next week, models are also in fairly good agreement that dry zonal flow will begin to propagate through the region by Monday. Because of this, we will be seeing cooler than normal temperatures, with the potential for overnight lows to drop below freezing for a couple hours at a time. Meanwhile, a low pressure system looks to enter the Pacific Northwest with a few shortwaves moving across the Northern Rockies through the week potentially bringing light showers to the north but overall, conditions appear to dry out until late next week when showers potentially return as a shortwave trough moves through the Desert SW and 4 Corners region pulling in some Pacific moisture. Keep in mind, this is still relatively far out, so confidence remains low on this matter as model solutions are varied.

Aviation

Issued at 1105 PM MDT Sat Oct 24 2026

Mostly clear skies can be found across the region though clouds and a few showers are beginning to fill in around KCEZ. Guidance is suggesting these showers will continue to develop and shift northward overnight. Even so, still think we'll stay VFR for the most part. Broken ceilings will return later in the morning into the afternoon hours with another chance for showers and storms. KTEX and KDRO have the best chance to see this convection while remaining TAF sites may see some showers. The stronger cells/showers may drop cigs/vis briefly to MVFR but do anticipate VFR conditions to remain predominant.

Hydrology

Issued at 1044 PM MDT Fri Oct 23 2026

Hydrologic concerns remain elevated through Saturday due to the widespread excessive rainfall. Some locations in the southern San Juan mountains have received 3-6 inches of rain since Wednesday afternoon. Potential hazards through Saturday include localized flash flooding from thunderstorms producing heavy rainfall rates and river flooding due to a prolonged period of widespread moderate to heavy rainfall. Several river gauges are near or past crest, but a few downstream locations are not expected to reach crest until Saturday.

There is a marginal risk of excessive rainfall Saturday across eastern Utah and western Colorado, mainly along and south of I-70. Precipitation amounts of 1-2 inches will be possible over the San Juans with 0.5 to 1 inch across the southern valleys. An additional concern is of rain on snow leading to more runoff making it into the waterways. Snow levels are forecast around 11-13 kft, which will likely result in melting of some of the existing early-season snow pack. The combined runoff from rain and rain-on-snow will result in a rapid rise in many of our creeks, streams and rivers. If heavy rainfall occurs many of the streams and rivers could experience additional crests.