Black Forest, CO Weather

Key Messages

- Flood Watch remains in effect through this afternoon for the eastern San Juan mountains and the Upper Rio Grande Valley, with stream/river flooding and rock/mud slides possible.

- Rainfall starting to diminish across the higher terrain through this morning, then strong thunderstorms possible along the southern border and eastern plains later this afternoon.

- Cooler and wetter weather areawide this weekend, with gradual warming and drying for the upcoming week.

Short Term

Issued at 1242 AM MDT Fri Oct 23 2026

Currently...Pacific low pressure system centered over NV was continuing to produce rounds of moderate to heavy rain along the Continental Divide overnight, with the focus area continuing to be the southwest mts where 3 to 4 inches of rain have already fallen in the past 24 hrs, and local emergency management are dealing with an ongoing flooding threat. The area will likely receive up to an inch of additional rainfall before the night is through. Overnight low temps are forecast to drop into the 40s for the high valleys, which they are already at, and upper 40s to upper 50s for the plains.

Today and tonight...Models are holding onto previous forecast solution, with the upper low pushing north into MT through the day while a secondary piece of energy drops south across NV. Tonight the northern low weakens and pushes east across MT, forcing a cold front south across eastern WY. At the same time, the southern low closes off across southern CA and AZ, continuing strong south-southwest flow across the Four Corners and CO. All the models are indicating a dramatic drop off in rainfall across the forecast area through the first half of the day, with additional QPF amounts across the southern mts amounting to around .20 of an inch, and the Flood Watch for the sw mts will be allowed to expire at 6 PM. By the afternoon and early evening, the focus for shower and storm activity shifts to the southern border and farther east, with CAPE of 500-1200 j/kg combining with 40-50 kts of bulk shear. SPC has painted a Marginal area for severe thunderstorms along the southern border and up across a portion of the eastern plains, with the main threat for the stronger storms being strong wind gusts up to 60 mph and hail up to one inch in diameter. This will be the last really warm day for the eastern plains as temps once again climb into the 70s to around 80F, while the high valleys climb into the 60s.

Those living or traveling across the southwest mountains and the San Luis Valley should continue to stay weather aware today, and have multiple ways to receive weather warnings.

Long Term

Issued at 1242 AM MDT Fri Oct 23 2026

Saturday and Sunday...A cold front pushes south into eastern CO Saturday morning, while the southern closed low moves up across AZ and reaches the Four Corners by Sat night. This will produce strong south to southwest flow, this time situated across the eastern half of the state. Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected on Saturday, with excessive rainfall amounts possible for the eastern plains, and new accumulating snow for the mts as snow levels drop to around 9000 ft late that night. SPC currently has just painted much of the plains in General Thunder, but I would not be surprised to see a Marginal enter the plains on upcoming updates due to impressive shear. On Sunday the upper low weakens slightly and tracks east into CO, continuing to bring rain and storm chances to the plains, and additional light snow to the mts. This will be the coolest days of the forecast period, with highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s for the high valleys both days. For the plains, look for 50s to around 60F for Saturday, then 50s for Sunday.

Monday through Thursday...Upper low weakens, opens and tracks east across CO as an open wave on Monday, with just some lingering isolated to low end scattered showers across the CWA. Temporary broad ridging aloft moves across the region for Tuesday, then brisk southwest flow aloft from a disturbance passing by to the north for Wednesday and Thursday. Plan on a gradual warming and drying trend through the week, with a return to seasonal temperatures. Moore

Aviation

Issued at 1122 PM MDT Thu Oct 22 2026

Fairly continuous rain will continue at KALS through the overnight hours with MVFR to occasional IFR/LIFR during the heavier rain. Improvement should occur around 16z as winds pick up and ceilings break. Winds will become gusty from the southwest during the afternoon to around 30 kts. Another round of showers will be possible after 22z, though these should be less widespread.

KCOS and KPUB will see rounds of showers into the overnight hours though rainfall will be less persistent and lighter. Conditions will stay VFR with cigs, but will be watching KCOS closely for some potential fog if southerly winds strengthen any. Odds look too low at this point given the persistent cloud cover and off and on rain showers. Otherwise, an improving trend can be expected Friday morning as southerly winds increase and gust to around 30-35 kts in the afternoon. There will be a line of showers and thunderstorms develop near or east of the TAF sites in the late afternoon so have included a prob30 for -TSRA and to reflect the possibility for erratic outflow winds. -KT