West Whittier-Los Nietos, CA Weather

Synopsis

26/230 AM.

Dry and warm conditions will continue through the first half of this week. Cooler conditions will follow, with a growing potential for a moderate to strong storm system towards next weekend.

Long Term (thu-sun)

26/230 AM.

On Thursday, slightly cyclonic SW flow develops over Srn CA as another upper low spins out of British Columbia. It will be a mostly cloudy day due to a combination of low mid and high clouds. Due to the extensive cloud cover max temps will flatten out and almost all areas save for the mid and upper mtn elevations will see max temps in the upper 60s or lower 70s.

On Friday the flow turns more to the SW and the cyclonic turning sharpens. The day will most likely resemble Thursday will cloudy skies and cooler than normal temps (4 to 8 locally 12 degrees under normal). But there will be a 10 to 20 percent chc of brief and light shower or two.

All eyes on the next storm system, which unfortunately, remains a low confidence forecast. One problem comes from timing and placement of a moisture plume moving in from the SW and the other is the evolution of the upper low over WA and OR. Until the mdls settle down and begin to converge on a solution the forecast will have to be broad brushed. There is very high confidence that it will rain during the weekend, but low confidence on onset timing and peak timing. Rainfall amounts are also a low confidence prediction. The current estimate calls for most areas south of Pt Conception to recieve about an inch with higher amounts in the foothills and coastal slopes. Most mdls keep most of the plume to the south of Pt Conception so areas north of there will probably see half that amount. There is a 20 to 30 percent chc that rainfall totals will be double that amount. Stay tuned for the latest details on this developing storm system.

Snow levels will generally be high, although light snow may occur at high elevations on the backside of the storm.

Max temps will only be in the mid to upper 60s through the weekend.

Aviation

26/0536Z.

At 0505Z at KLAX, there was a surface-based inversion. The top of the inversion was 1300 feet with a temperature of 22 degrees Celsius.

For the 00Z TAF package, high confidence in CAVU TAFs for KSBA, KOXR, KCMA, KBUR, KVNY, KPMD and KWJF.

For KSBP there is a 30% chance of LIFR/VLIFR conds, and a 30-40 percent chance that LIFR/VLIFR conds do not affect KSMX or KPRB. For KLAX, KLGB and KSMO, there is a 10-20% chance of LIFR/VLIFR conditions 08Z-16Z.

KLAX...High confidence in TAF. There is only a 20% chance of 2SM BR OVC004 conditions 12Z-17Z. No significant easterly wind component is expected.

KBUR...High confidence in CAVU TAF.

Marine

26/236 AM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. This afternoon through Wednesday, high confidence in winds increasing to SCA levels. On Thursday and Friday, there is a 50-60% chance of SCA level winds continuing.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. For this afternoon and evening, there is a 60-80% chance of SCA level winds. For Tuesday through Friday, there is a 30-50% chance of SCA level winds each afternoon and evening.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Through Friday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels for most of the southern Inner Waters. The only exception will be the western half of the Santa Barbara Channel with a 50-60% chance of SCA level winds in the late afternoon and evening hours Monday and Tuesday, then again on Friday.

Dense fog is likely to form over portions of the coastal waters over the next 48 hours, but low confidence on exactly when and where.

A significant storm system will impact the area sometime in the late Friday through early next week timeframe. There is a wide range of outcomes, but there is at least a low threat of a 12-24 hour period of strong winds and step seas.