Spring Valley Lake, CA Weather

Synopsis

Lingering scattered showers will bring light rain to areas west of the mountains today, becoming more confined to San Diego County this evening. Weak offshore flow expected Saturday and Sunday. Dry and warmer for the weekend through Monday, then gradually cooler for the middle of next week with a chance of precipitation for late next week. Tides will increase over the weekend, remaining elevated through much of next week.

Discussion

FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES...

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

Radar imagery at 12 PM was showing scattered showers moving from north to south mainly across coastal areas. Over the past 6 hours, places north of San Diego County have received mainly less than 0.05", with totals ranging from 0.05 to 0.30" in San Diego County. Additional showers will continue at times through the day, most likely in San Diego County, eventually tapering off overnight.

By tonight, models are showing a closed upper level low moving south and east towards the border of California and Arizona. This will turn the pressure gradient weakly offshore, increasing north to northeasterly winds in wind prone locations. Peak wind gusts will be in the 30 to 45 mph range, strongest on the foothills of the San Bernardino mountains and just below the Cajon Pass. Given the unsettled weather quickly turning to offshore flow, marine layer low clouds and fog will largely be absent from the coast into early next week.

High temperatures over the weekend will warm. Highs Saturday are expected to be 5 to 10 degrees warmer than today, with additional warming along the coast on Sunday and a few degrees of cooling or no change further inland. By Monday, high temperatures in coastal areas will be 5 to 10 degrees above average, with temperatures closer to average further inland. Cooler conditions expected for the middle to end of next week.

Global ensembles are indicating the potential for unsettled weather for the end of next week. There remains a lot of spread in solutions and uncertainty in the details. Rain chances are in the forecast as early as Friday. NBM chances for 0.01 inch or more of rainfall for the coast to the mountains increases from 10 to 20 percent for next Friday to 35 to 45 percent on Saturday the 31st to 40 to 50 percent on Sunday November 1st. In addition to precipitation, cooler, cloudier, and windier conditions may develop.

Aviation

240530Z...Generally VFR conditions across the region, though -SHRA/SHRA will continue off and on for the next few hours in portions of San Diego County and in the Coachella Valley. Low clouds based 3-7 kft will slowly SCT overnight with SKC expected across the region by sunrise Sat. N/NE winds gusting 25-35 kts develop starting 06-09z through (and south of) the Cajon Pass and along south-facing mountain slopes. Winds weaken and eventually diminish Saturday afternoon and evening.

Marine

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue through 07z. Any thunderstorm that forms will be capable of producing gusty, erratic winds, choppy seas, and lightning. Otherwise, no hazardous marine conditions are expected through Tuesday.