Rio Rico, AZ Weather

Synopsis

Dry conditions are expected areawide into Thursday. Showers and thunderstorms will return to the region late Thursday through next weekend. High temperatures will be below normal today, warming to near to slightly above normal Monday through Thursday, then lowering back below normal Friday through next weekend.

Discussion

An upper low was currently centered over northern Arizona, moving slowly to the northeast. Drier air has moved in behind this system across southeast Arizona, with satellite layer blended PW values in the 0.25-0.40 inch range east of Tucson and between 0.50-0.60 inches west of Tucson. Scattered clouds across portions of southeast Arizona will shift north and east of the forecast area during the mid to late morning hours today.

High pressure aloft will build across the desert southwest behind the upper low late today through Wednesday. This will result in dry and warmer conditions across southeast Arizona.

Late this week into next weekend the models show an active pattern, with west coast troughing and southern stream moisture moving into the southern half of the west coast and across the Intermountain West. There continues to be timing/track differences, with the GFS focusing more on the northern half of Arizona into the Great Basin, while the ECMWF is focused further south across the desert southwest. Either way, the weather turns unsettled late in the day Thursday, with increasing chances for showers/thunderstorms Friday and Saturday across southeast Arizona and then the potential for subtropical moisture plume influence late Saturday and Sunday.

Overall, high temperatures will be 2-4 degrees below normal today, warming to near to slightly above normal Monday through Thursday, then lowering to 8-10 degrees below normal next weekend.

Aviation

Valid through 26/12Z. FEW-SCT clouds at 6k-9k ft AGL thru 25/17Z, then clear skies/SKC conditions thru the remainder of the forecast period. SFC wind less than 12 kts thru the forecast period, favoring a WLY/NWLY direction during the afternoon/early evening hours and variable in direction at other times. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

Fire Weather

Dry conditions are expected areawide into Thursday. Showers and thunderstorms will return to the region late Thursday through next weekend. High temperatures will be below normal today, warming to near to slightly above normal Monday through Thursday, then lowering back below normal Friday through next weekend. 20-foot winds will generally be 15 mph or less through Thursday. Minimum RH values will be in the 25-35 percent range in the valleys today and higher in the mountains. Minimum RH values will then be in the 18-30 percent range Monday, 15-25 percent range Tuesday and Wednesday, increasing back above 40+ percent late this week into next weekend.