Mena, AR Weather

Key Messages

Issued at 1220 AM CDT Tue Oct 20 2026

-Warming trend back to above normal levels are possible through the upcoming weekend and possibly longer.

-No significant rainfall is expected through the end of the work week with drought conditions continuing to worsen.

Discussion

Issued at 122 AM CDT Tue Oct 20 2026

Satellite imagery early this morning shows some high level cloudiness streaming over the state from the central and southern PLains. Winds across the state early this morning are light and variable with temperatures in the upper 40s and lower 50s. Temperatures across the state will bottom out in the 40s across the state this morning.

An analysis of upper air charts shows that the Natural state remains under the influence of ridging within northwest flow. Elsewhere,an upper trough was noted just off the Atlantic seaboard with a closed low, while a trough and closed low was digging and strengthen off the US west coast this evening.

Model and ensemble model analysis early this morning shows northwest flow will remaining in place across Arkansas through the latter part of this week. As we head into the latter part of the week into the weekend, the upper ridge will strengthen as it moves toward and over this state during the upcoming weekend. There is some variations in strength of the ridge and track of the upper trough as it moves through the central and southern Plains.

The aforementioned upper trough and closed low will come ashore along the US west coast sometime within the Wednesday night into Thursday morning. The upper trough/closed low moving northeast across southern California into Nevada Thursday and northern Rockies on Friday. On the heels of that trough will be another upper trough that will move into California Thursday night into Friday, then into the Desert southwest this weekend. The upper trough will progress into the southern Rockies by the end of this weekend dragging an attendant cold front with it.

The upper trough and cold front will move into the central this weekend into early next week. Both the ECMWF and GFS show the front moving through the state, but the front will have limited moisture to work with and the best chance for appreciable rainfall generally across north and northwest Arkansas. Temperatures through the period will run roughly 10 degrees above normal for late October for afternoon highs.

Aviation

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 556 AM CDT Tue Oct 20 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period with some mid and high level cloudiness. Light winds will persist mainly out of the easterly direction.

Preliminary Point Temps

Batesville AR 76 48 77 47 / 0 0 0 0 Camden AR 81 46 81 46 / 0 0 0 0 Harrison AR 74 48 74 49 / 0 0 0 0 Hot Springs AR 79 50 80 49 / 0 0 0 0 Little Rock AR 79 51 79 51 / 0 0 0 0 Monticello AR 80 50 80 51 / 0 0 0 0 Mount Ida AR 79 44 80 45 / 0 0 0 0 Mountain Home AR 72 47 73 47 / 0 0 0 0 Newport AR 76 50 78 49 / 0 0 0 0 Pine Bluff AR 80 48 80 48 / 0 0 0 0 Russellville AR 77 47 78 48 / 0 0 0 0 Searcy AR 79 50 79 50 / 0 0 0 0 Stuttgart AR 80 50 81 49 / 0 0 0 0