Wrangell, AK Weather

Update

Update for new long term discussion and 06Z TAF issuance discussion...

Minor updates to the forecast this evening as the rain and strong winds continue to build east as the intensifying low lifting into the northern Gulf sends a front east into the panhandle. Made timing changes to marine and wind hazards to better match current guidance.

Synopsis

Key Messages:

- Heavy rain spreading eastward overnight and continuing through Tuesday for northern panhandle. Flood watches in effect.

- Wind gusts ranging from 40-55 mph with highest gusts near Yakutat and Skagway. Westerly wind shift from west to east Tuesday into Tuesday night.

- Thunderstorms possible Tuesday afternoons and overnight into Wednesday.

Long Term

/Thursday through Sunday/...Onshore flow with at times moderate showers continue for Thursday with the stacked but weakening low lingering over the northern Gulf. The low will shift southeast and weaken further Thursday night into Friday, with showers diminishing from north to south across the panhandle. Any lingering showers across the southern panhandle should by Friday afternoon. A few lingering snow showers possible for Thursday along the Klondike Highway and the upper reaches of the Haines Highway but any accumulations would be minimal. As the low departs to the southeast, ensemble and deterministic guidance generally show upper-level ridge over mainland Alaska shifting east and settling over SEAK Friday into the weekend, with clearing skies and drier offshore flow developing. Gusty northerly winds could develop along the northern highway into Lynn Canal. Daytime highs will remain in the 40s throughout the period, with overnight lows in the 30s.

Aviation

/through 06Z Wednesday/...Tonight, a strong system near the NE Gulf Coast brings heavy rain and strong winds across most of the region. Worsening conditions are expected to occur within the next few hours near Icy Strait and northward with the initial front.

Widespread MVFR conditions (CIGs 1500-2500 ft, VSBY 4-6 SM) will spread eastward. A secondary front reaching the outer panhandle Tuesday morning will cause frequent drops to IFR due to moderate to heavy rain across the Gulf Coast and northern panhandle. Conditions improve slightly from NW to SE starting Tuesday evening, with PAYA potentially returning to low-end VFR by late afternoon. Onshore flow will maintain showery, BKN-OVC 2500-3000 ft CIGs across northern sites through Wednesday morning.

Strong winds peak this evening along coastal regions (1525 kt sustained, gusts 35-40 kt) before weakening inland. A lower-level jet (45-55 kt at 2000 ft) shifting from southerly to westerly will bring widespread LLWS and turbulence through Tuesday afternoon. There is also a slight chance of isolated thunderstorms along the NE Gulf Coast late Tuesday through Wednesday morning following the secondary frontal passage.