Merced, CA 95344 Weather

Key Messages

1. Chances for precipitation will remain in place through much of the day today. Localized heavy rain remains possible especially as we progress into the afternoon.

2. There is about a 30-45% chance for an additional tenth of an inch of rain throughout the most of the Central Valley. There will be more precipitation in the high Sierra with a 60-80% chance of at least a quarter of an inch of rainfall.

3. There is a 25-40% chance of at least 2 inches of additional snowfall above 8,0000 feet along the high Sierra (probabilities increase further at higher elevations) through this evening.

4. Temperatures will warm up to near average this weekend with dry conditions in place after today.

Discussion

A strong trough with a closed low is set up directly over our area now. Precipitation chances will therefore persist throughout the day today, while being less widespread than yesterday. There is currently steady rainfall over southeastern Kern County and within the Mojave Desert, an area we are monitoring closely with that region particularly prone to flooding. In addition, steady rainfall was recently observed over the foothills and along the Sierra Nevadas. There is the potential for rainfall through at least tonight within our area. The probability of thunderstorms today is at around 10-20% throughout the entire region. In terms of additional rainfall totals, there is 30-45% chance for an additional tenth an inch of rainfall through most of the Central Valley. Mostly light to moderate precipitation will be present within our area but some localized pockets of heavy rainfall and thunderstorms can not be ruled out as rainfall continues to move off the Pacific Ocean and into our region. In terms of snowfall in the high Sierra there is a 25-40% chance for at least 2 inches of additional snowfall above 8,000 feet. More snowfall is possible above 10,000 feet with a 40-60% chance for at least 4 inches.

The majority of the rainfall will move out of our region by late tonight with tomorrow remaining dry and cool throughout the Central Valley. With the potential for some clearing overnight after rainfall today some localized pockets of fog and reduced visibilities are possible tomorrow (low confidence). There is also a possibility for some localized rainfall and snowfall along the Sierra Nevada mountains (15-25%) tomorrow mostly in the morning into early afternoon hours (little to no accumulation is likely). Temperatures will also remain well below average tomorrow with the probability of temepratures above 70 degrees at around 30-45% across much of the valley. Warmer weather with temperatures near average will move into place this weekend with a weak ridge of high pressure moving into our area. The probability of temperatures above 78 degrees will be at around 65-80% throughout much of the valley on Sunday and Monday. Dry conditions are also expected this weekend through at least the middle of next week.

The majority of ensemble members are in agreement that a trough will move into our region by the middle to end of next week. With the trough moving in there is the potential for rainfall next weekend, or Halloween weekend, with potential wet conditions for Halloween festive activities. However, this is a long way out with low confidence, and as of now the probability of at least a tenth of an inch of rainfall is at about 30-45% across much of the region. The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) has our region with near normal temperatures in the 6-10 Day Outlook and 50-70% chance for above normal precipitation. Similar conditions are also present in the 8-14 Day Outlook.

Aviation

MVFR conditions with IFR at times are possible with localized thunderstorms. Isolated thunderstorms have a 10-20 percent chance to develop through 03Z Friday. With any thunderstorms that do potentially develop there is the possibility for strong winds. After this evening conditions are expected to improve near and around airports. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours.

Air Quality Issues

None.