Heber, CA 92249 Weather

Key Messages

- A strong low pressure system is expected to bring multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms through Thursday across much of central and eastern Arizona.

- Moderate to heavy rainfall activity leading to areas of flash flooding as well as isolated to widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms leading to damaging wind gusts, large hail, and even a few isolated tornadoes are all possible.

- Drier air filtering into the region by the end of the week will lead to more benign weather conditions during the weekend through at least early next week.

- Near normal temperatures today will cool to below normal levels by the latter half of the week and last through the weekend.

Aviation

Updated at 0610Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT: The main aviation concern remains the potential for multiple windows of convection and its associated operational hazards. The first round early tonight (through about 10Z) has lower confidence regarding direct impacts at the terminals, but PROB30 groups have been maintained to address this uncertainty. There is better confidence regarding the second round of TS activity Wednesday afternoon/evening between 19-01Z. Timing may need to be adjusted based on future forecast trends, but TEMPO groups have been carried over from the previous forecast as a reflection of higher certainty. Low CIGs down to 5-6 kft, gusty and erratic winds, and sub- VFR surface VIS will accompany any TSRA that moves near or over the terminals.

Outside of convective windows, winds will maintain some degree of an E'rly component through Wednesday evening with a S'rly tilt to the flow during the afternoon hours. SCT-BKN skies will be common across the region.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: No major aviation concerns are expected during the TAF period. Outside of extended periods of VRB conditions, S'rly flow will be favored at KBLH, with some gusts upwards of 20-25 kt during the afternoon hours, while winds at KIPL will take on familiar diurnal trends, flipping between SE and W. FEW-SCT skies will be common through Wednesday evening, with the lowest bases around 6-7 kft.

Fire Weather

A low pressure system will bring very active weather conditions across much of central and eastern AZ through Thursday as multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected. Significant rainfall activity is likely in some areas, particularly across the higher terrain areas of the eastern districts where rainfall amounts in excess of 1-2" are possible. MinRHs through Thursday will range between 30-40% across the western districts and between 40-70% across the eastern districts along with good to excellent overnight recoveries. Some gusty winds with peak gusts upwards of 25-30 mph are likely this afternoon and once again on Thursday across the western districts. Much quieter conditions are expected starting Friday along with a decrease in humidity values. Near normal temperatures today will cool into a below normal category starting Thursday and lasting through the weekend.

Psr Watches

AZ...Flood Watch from 11 AM MST this morning through Thursday evening for AZZ545-547-552-556>558-560>563.

Flood Watch from 2 PM MST this afternoon through Thursday afternoon for AZZ534-537-538-540>544-546-548>551-553>555.

CA...None.