Mesquite, NV 89027 Weather

Key Messages

* Scattered showers and thunderstorms with brief heavy rain, small hail, and lightning will remain possible through this evening.

* Drier conditions and seasonable temperatures expected this weekend and early next week.

Discussion

through next Thursday.

A large 564dm low continues to slowly meander across central California this afternoon, with a strong and deep southerly flow out ahead of it. This flow pattern has entrained some deeper surface moisture north into the region over the past couple days, and as the low moves inland today, cooler air aloft is moving in helping to add to the instability present. This is sparking a few corridors of strong thunderstorm activity again this afternoon. Deep layer shear of 40-50 knots or greater is resulting in very fast northward storm motions which is helping to limit the flood threat, but enhancing the risk of small to potentially quarter sized hail. This risk will remain present through the evening hours before instability begins to wane and the corridor of instability and wind shear shifts eastward.

By tomorrow, the low will have moved inland and begun to weaken considerably, but weak troughing will remain over head with lingering terrain driven showers possible. Conditions will continue to dry through the weekend and next week with temperatures returning to near normal.

Aviation

For Harry Reid...For the 18Z Forecast Package... Scattered showers in the vicinity of the field will persist into this evening before ending by 04Z. Initially, most of the activity is expected to be over the higher terrain west of the field, but guidance is showing a window between 22Z and 02Z when showers will have a better chance of directly impacting the field. Away from showers, winds should generally be southerly with gusts to 20 knots. However, winds may be affected by shower activity, resulting in erratic wind directions at times. An isolated thunderstorm is also not out of the question later this afternoon. Winds will diminish overnight and Friday, with speeds staying below 8 knots. CIGs should generally remain above 8kft AGL but could fall to 5kft to 6kft AGL in any showers.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...For the 18Z Forecast Package...Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue to be possible across a large portion of the region this afternoon and evening, with the heaviest activity located over the eastern third. CIGs could fall as low as 5kft to 6kft AGL in and near the stronger activity, while away from precipitation, cloud bases should generally remain AOA 8kft AGL. Locally erratic winds are also likely near showers and storms. Otherwise, gusty south to west winds are expected at most regional terminals into this evening. Lighter winds will be seen overnight, with speeds falling below 10 knots in most areas.

Spotter Information Statement

Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures.