Dolan Springs, AZ 86441 Weather

Key Messages

* Scattered showers and thunderstorms with brief heavy rain, small hail, and lightning will remain possible through this evening.

* Drier conditions and seasonable temperatures expected this weekend and early next week.

Discussion

through next Thursday.

A large 564dm low continues to slowly meander across central California this afternoon, with a strong and deep southerly flow out ahead of it. This flow pattern has entrained some deeper surface moisture north into the region over the past couple days, and as the low moves inland today, cooler air aloft is moving in helping to add to the instability present. This is sparking a few corridors of strong thunderstorm activity again this afternoon. Deep layer shear of 40-50 knots or greater is resulting in very fast northward storm motions which is helping to limit the flood threat, but enhancing the risk of small to potentially quarter sized hail. This risk will remain present through the evening hours before instability begins to wane and the corridor of instability and wind shear shifts eastward.

By tomorrow, the low will have moved inland and begun to weaken considerably, but weak troughing will remain over head with lingering terrain driven showers possible. Conditions will continue to dry through the weekend and next week with temperatures returning to near normal.

Aviation

For Harry Reid...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Showers have exited the area and are not expected through the TAF period. South winds at 10-15KT are expected through 09Z. Isolated gusts over 20KT are possible but should be infrequent. Between 09Z-12Z, winds will drop under 8KT, becoming light and variable for the rest of the night into Friday morning. Winds on Friday afternoon will remain under 8KT, becoming east in the afternoon before backing to the northwest around sunset. A stronger push of northwest winds is possible around 09Z Friday night with winds over 10KT and gusts to around 20KT expected. VFR skies will persist.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms will persist for a few more hours, mainly in Lincoln County into northwest Arizona. By Friday, other than a few showers in the terrain of Inyo County in the afternoon, it will be dry across the region the rest of the TAF period. South to southwest winds at 10-15KT will continue a few more hours before dropping to under 10KT areawide by Friday morning. Winds will generally remain at or below 10KT through Friday afternoon, favoring the north to northeast in the afternoon. A front will push through northern Inyo County and portions of the Southern Great Basin Friday evening, with northwest winds at 10-15KT and gusts to 25KT expected behind this feature.

Spotter Information Statement

Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures.