Victoria, TX 77902 Weather

Key Messages

Issued at 624 PM CDT Tue Oct 20 2026

- Rain chances increasing to low to moderate (20-60%) tonight and Wednesday, mainly along the coast and southern Coastal Plains. Highest chances will be across the coastal waters.

- Minor coastal flooding will remain possible through the week.

- Moderate Rip Current Risk today through Wednesday.

Discussion

Issued at 130 PM CDT Tue Oct 20 2026

Temperatures will remain near or slightly above normal through the weekend with north to east winds generally below 15 knots. Moisture will begin an increase tonight under the influence of a surface/mid- level trough. This will lead to a low (20-40%) chance of showers along the coast tonight. As the trough shifts further west Wednesday into early Thursday , so will the rain chances across the southern Coastal Plains and southern Brush Country. Beyond Thursday, rain chances will diminish to nearly zero. The next chances for rain will be early next week as another trough approaches the area.

A persistent northeast to easterly flow will continue through Thursday/Thursday night. While the winds are expected to remain between 5-15 knots, the persistent northeast to easterly wind direction and swell periods around 8 seconds could lead to minor coastal flooding during the times of high tide. Guidance indicates and upward trend in tidal levels; however, confidence remains low to medium. We will continue to monitor for possible Coastal Flood Advisories.

Though winds will be northeast/east through Thursday night, 8 second swell periods could help to increase the rip current threat, particularly near piers and jetties. Will continue with a moderate rip current risk today and Wednesday due to swell periods around 8 seconds. The northeast flow tends to lower the rip current risk, but 8 second period swells tends to increase the risk.

Aviation

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 624 PM CDT Tue Oct 20 2026

Mainly VFR conditions to prevail throughout the TAF period. There's a very low chance for fog at ALI/VCT early Wednesday morning as indicated by the HRRR model guidance. However, have opted to leave out of TAFs as other models indicate no VSBY restrictions as conditions do not appear to be conducive for fog formation. Additionally, there's a low chance for showers Wednesday morning/afternoon at CRP so have included PROB30 and a few stray showers are possible across ALI but have left that out of TAFs as well due to low confidence. Otherwise, winds should remain light out of the east/northeast.

Marine

Issued at 130 PM CDT Tue Oct 20 2026

A gentle to occasionally fresh (BF 3-5) northeast to east breeze can be expected through mid-week. There is a medium to high chance of showers tonight through Wednesday night.