Carrollton, TX 75011 Weather

Key Messages

- Quiet weather will continue through this week, with steadily warming temperatures through the end of the week.

Short Term

(Tonight through Friday) Issued at 1200 PM CDT Tue Oct 20 2026

Calm and quiet weather will continue this week. Upper-level ridging continues to be the dominant pattern across North and Central Texas, extending this streak of pleasant and dry fall weather. Temperatures will gradually warm up day by day, with overnight lows staying in the upper 50s. Wednesday onward, expect highs in the low 80s, with light east winds and some cirrus development keeping temperatures moderate and seasonable. There are no chances for any rain through the end of the week.

Long Term

(Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 1200 PM CDT Tue Oct 20 2026

This quiet ridging pattern will persist through the weekend, with seasonable weather on tap through the extended period. By Saturday, an upper-level trough along the west coast will begin to send shortwaves along the flow pattern, shunting northeast between the developing trough to the west and the strong ridge overhead. The majority of any shortwave driven ascent should stay off to the northwest which will keep PoP's very low to nil (around 10% for NW North Texas). Cirrus and upper-level cloud development as a result of the intensifying trough and propagating shortwaves will dampen our warming trend slightly, with max temperatures breaking into the low 80s each day this weekend. In addition to seasonal temps, the skin-crackingly dry air should also see some improvement, with southerly winds bringing some moisture return back to the area.

By next Monday, long-range guidance depicts the upper level trough shifting off to the northeast, flattening our current ridge pattern. To the west, LREF cluster analysis has begun to signal a developing upper-level low in the Pacific Northwest that will start to intensify and swing south. With the predominant ridge flattened and weakened, returning rain chances are on the table for North and Central Texas by mid-week as the pattern shifts. Some of the GEFS ensemble members, as well as the GFS, are beginning to resolve a cold frontal passage by the end of this extended period (Tuesday into Wednesday next week), but timing, intensity, and coverage of any rain & storm chances remain uncertain.

Aviation

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 545 PM CDT Tue Oct 20 2026

Isolated rain showers and virga associated with a weak shortwave over the Southern Plains should remain northeast of all TAF locations. A ridge aloft centered over Mexico and South Texas will otherwise provide quiet aviation weather, with VFR and light east winds expected across the board. Will continue with one- line TAFs for this forecast cycle.