Saint Paul, MN 55125 Weather

Key Messages

- Above normal temperatures and dry weather continue through at least Friday.

- Rain chances and normal temperatures return this weekend.

Discussion

Issued at 248 AM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026

TODAY...There is quite the range in regional temperatures this morning, with parts of western Minnesota still sitting in the low 50s while some spots in west-central Wisconsin are plummeting to the low 30s already. There is also seemingly random 10 degree differences over short distances all across the area. For example, KLVN in Lakeville is sitting at 45F at 2AM and KMSP is at a balmy 55F. Maybe that example is influenced by the urban heat island, but you can find more examples of that spread all over this morning. This is likely showing the battle between southerly winds advecting warm air northwards and clear skies facilitating efficient radiational cooling (strength varying based on location). All that to say, some folks will be waking up to chilly temps this morning. Winds will not increase too drastically today, though the persistent southerly flow and sunny skies will bump highs up a couple degrees from yesterday.

THURSDAY TO SATURDAY...Temperatures will run a good 15 to 20 degrees above normal for mid-October (meaning highs in the mid 70s and lows in the mid 50s). Both Thursday and Friday have a shot at exceeding 80 degrees for locations along the Buffalo Ridge. Southeasterly winds will increase for Friday and Saturday ahead of a developing low pressure system over southern Canada. A cold front is expected to swing through the region on Saturday, though not before it loses much of its umph. The southerly flow will help increase PWATs to a little over an inch (which is almost 3 times normal for mid October), so there will certainly be enough moisture to tap into. The overall lack of strong forcing though will likely limit precip amounts to a couple tenths at most as the rounds of showers move through this weekend.

SUNDAY TO TUESDAY...The pattern changes and our late summer-like weather comes to an end next week. The highs next week will be similar to what our lows are like this week. And lows drop into the 30s, with many areas across the north likely seeing sub- freezing temps again as we near the end of October. Rain chances linger to start the week, though it depends on how far south that front is able to drop.

Aviation

Issued at 1217 PM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026

A quiet TAF period overall with mainly VFR, with winds light and variable under 5kts turning towards 120-150 by the tail end of the period. Patches of BR are possible after 08z, lasting through around 15z, with the most favorable environment for EAU/RNH/STC, although we may end up needing more coverage as we get closer.

KMSP...There is low end BR potential, but visibility is not expected to drop significantly within the warmer urban core.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ FRI...VFR. Wind SE 10-15G25kts. SAT...VFR, chc -SHRA/MVFR. Wind S 10-15G30kts. SUN...VFR, chc -SHRA/MVFR late. Wind N 5kts.

Mpx Watches

MN...None. WI...None.