Boca Raton, FL 33498 Weather

Key Messages

Updated at 318 AM EDT Fri Oct 23 2026

- Moderate coastal flooding is expected with each high tide cycle. Major coastal flooding is possible late this weekend into early next week.

- Heavy rain and isolated flash flooding is possible across the east coast metros Sunday through Monday.

- Strong winds, with gusts over 35 mph are possible Sunday through Monday.

- Dangerous marine and beach conditions are expected through early next week.

Short Term

(Today through Saturday) Issued at 318 AM EDT Fri Oct 23 2026

Coastal showers along the Atlantic waters will continue to be a nuisance through the early morning hours as coastal convergence continues to set up along the more unstable Gulf Stream. Mid level water vapor imagery and the recent MFL upper air sounding indicate that there is quite a bit of dry air above 700 mb, so most convection will remain very weak and low topped. The better moisture content looks to be further east along a weak inverted surface trough in the Bahamas. But low level lapse rates of 7 C/Km and limited instability of around 1000 J/kg should continue to support isolated to scattered showers moving onshore. PoPs along the Atlantic waters and adjacent coastal zones will be between 50% and 60% through the afternoon. More inland, chances for showers will be isolated, at around 30% for the eastern metro areas and less than 20% for interior portions of South Florida. With showers pinned along the coast, a few areas may see up to an inch of rain. However, the drier air and subsidence aloft should keep most activity pretty weak. With precipitable water values near climatology, chances of seeing greater than an inch are only about 30% for South Florida. Therefore, the risk of urban flooding will be very low (at least related to precipitation, keep reading for more info on the King Tides).

Aloft, most of the eastern CONUS finds itself in deep longwave troughing, with a couple of embedded shortwave vorticity maxima moving southeast into the Atlantic. Meanwhile at the surface, strong high pressure centered over New England will continue to tighten the pressure gradient along the eastern seaboard. This will result in strengthening winds through the weekend from the northeast. Winds will generally be 10 to 15 mph, with gusts up to 25 mph. While these winds won't be quite impactful yet, they will serve to enhance onshore flow along the Atlantic coast, which when paired with increased swell and wave activity may help increase the risk of urban tidal flooding along metro Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach during the peak King Tides.

On Saturday, the base of the mid-level trough swings across the peninsula, bringing along with it a swath of vorticity through the region. However, the better dynamics for thunderstorms will remain offshore over the Atlantic where there is better divergence aloft. Another player on Saturday will be the evolution of a shortwave trough digging south from the Carolinas and into the Florida coast. Some ensembles are starting to come into agreement in showing a cut off low developing off of the Space Coast on Saturday. There is a lot of uncertainty at this moment regarding the timing of this feature and how far south it may travel into our region. For now, PoPs for Saturday afternoon remain low across most of South Florida (less than 20%) outside of the immediate Atlantic coast where coastal convergence storms keep chances higher. HREF ensembles LPMMs keep all the heaviest precipitation offshore and to the north through Saturday evening, with solutions only showing about 0.5 to 1 inch of rain at most.

Long Term

(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 318 AM EDT Fri Oct 23 2026

There is increasing confidence in greater chances of precipitation on Saturday evening into Sunday morning. Increased moisture will surge into the region as the mid level Atlantic trough or cut off low continues to dig south into the western Atlantic. Some solutions display this system stalling as far south as Cuba, with a stationary frontal boundary at the surface draped across South Florida. However, precipitable water values don't seem all too impressive, with values climbing up to around 1.6 to 1.7 inches, which is between the mean and 75th percentile for this time of year. So while chances of precipitation will be high, between 85% and 95% for the Atlantic waters and coastal Atlantic areas, QPF continues to trend down among guidance. Ensemble QPF clusters vary both spatially and temporally due to the uncertainty regarding the upper low feature. Some solutions keep the highest QPF offshore, while others bring it onshore but north of South Florida. One scenario brings a swath of heavier precipitation along the eastern metro areas, between 2 to 3 inches through Monday. Model soundings indicate that conditions will be favorable for coastal convergence storms to be pinned along the coast, with brisk northeasterly flow at the surface nearly opposite to the strong westerly to southwesterly flow in the 700 mb and 500 mb heights. So, if several storms were to be pinned along the coast for several hours, localized urban flooding for low lying and poor drainage areas may be possible. However, chances of widespread amounts of greater than 2 inches are only at around 45%, with highest rain amounts likely staying over the waters.

Strong northeast winds will persist through Monday and some locations near the coast will be flirting with Wind Advisory conditions. Broken tree branches and loose objects may be flung about in winds between 25 to 35 mph. One thing to keep in mind for this weekend is the combination of the King Tide with heavy rain and increased onshore flow. All these factors together may raise tide and water levels into the moderate flood category for coastal urban areas along Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach. Roadways and low lying areas may be flooded for several hours, especially if the high tide coincides with heavy rainfall. Remember, turn around, don't drown. Never drive, walk, or wade, over flooded areas.

Surface high pressure over the northeast will keep the tight pressure gradient along the eastern seaboard through the middle of the week. This will allow for breezy winds and coastal showers to continue through at least Wednesday. Chances of precipitation drop to around 40% for eastern parts of South Florida through the end of the week as mid-level ridging begins to build over the Gulf and slide over Florida.

Aviation

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 138 AM EDT Fri Oct 23 2026

VFR conditions should prevail at all sites through the period. Breezy northeast winds will be common throughout the morning and afternoon, with gusts up to 20 kts likely, particularly for east coast terminals. Quick showers may briefly bring down visibilities and ceilings, with a few isolated vicinity thunderstorms along the coast.