US recession by end of 2026?
8%chance▲ 1
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Will ground beef hit __ in 2026?
The odds
$7.16high with an even chance
Traders see an even chance of trading as high as $7.16.
- Reaches $755%
- Reaches $824%
- Reaches $924%
- Reaches $1010%
How the odds have moved
Reaches $7: 56% on Oct 13, 55% now.
Each outcome's chance over time, from its prices on Polymarket.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $7.000+ | 55% | ▼ 4 | 18¢ | 92¢ | $134 |
| $8.000+ | 24% | 7¢ | 28¢ | $2.4K | |
| $9.000+ | 24% | ▲ 9 | 6¢ | 53¢ | $841 |
| $10.000+ | 10% | 3¢ | 16¢ | $19.6K |
Related markets
All growth & recession ›South Dakota corn yield in 2026
152.1median
120185
Median 152.1Middle half 147.0 – 157.2
US real GDP growth in Q3 2026?
3.24%median
-0.5%4.5%
Median 3.24%Middle half 2.67% – 3.94%
Recession in 2027?
20%chance▲ 1
GDP growth in 2026
2.48%median
0%3%
Median 2.48%Middle half 2.23% – 2.74%
US real GDP growth in Q1 2027?
2.08%median
-0.5%4.5%
Median 2.08%Middle half 0.89% – 3.12%
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi and Polymarket, not forecasts by 4Search. Read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed up to 15 min. Not investment advice.
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