US recession by end of 2026?
8%chance▲ 1
Install
Spotify Monthly Active Users above __ in Q3?
The odds
787.26Mmedian
760.00M830.00M
Median 787.26MMiddle half 783.46M – 793.59M
How the odds have moved
Median: 787.26M on Oct 13, 787.26M now.
The median price the market implied over time, and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Polymarket.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 770M | >99% | 100¢ | 100¢ | $617 | |
| 780M | 98% | 97¢ | 99¢ | $167 | |
| 790M | 32% | 10¢ | 54¢ | $40.00 | |
| 800M | 13% | 10¢ | 15¢ | $760 | |
| 810M | 4% | 0¢ | 8¢ | $484 | |
| 820M | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | $789 |
Related markets
All growth & recession ›South Dakota corn yield in 2026
152.1median
120185
Median 152.1Middle half 147.0 – 157.2
US real GDP growth in Q3 2026?
3.24%median
-0.5%4.5%
Median 3.24%Middle half 2.67% – 3.94%
Recession in 2027?
20%chance▲ 1
GDP growth in 2026
2.48%median
0%3%
Median 2.48%Middle half 2.23% – 2.74%
US real GDP growth in Q1 2027?
2.08%median
-0.5%4.5%
Median 2.08%Middle half 0.89% – 3.12%
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi and Polymarket, not forecasts by 4Search. Read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed up to 15 min. Not investment advice.
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