US recession by end of 2026?
8%chance▲ 1
Install
Moody's or S&P downgrades France by...?
The odds
74%October 31
- October 3174%▲ 8
- November 3078%▼ 6
How the odds have moved
October 31: 75% on Oct 13, 74% now.
Each outcome's chance over time, from its prices on Polymarket.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 31 | 74% | ▲ 8 | 65¢ | 83¢ | $3.0K |
| November 30 | 78% | ▼ 6 | 73¢ | 82¢ | $1.9K |
Related markets
All growth & recession ›South Dakota corn yield in 2026
152.1median
120185
Median 152.1Middle half 147.2 – 157.2
US real GDP growth in Q3 2026?
3.25%median
-0.5%4.5%
Median 3.25%Middle half 2.67% – 3.94%
Recession in 2027?
20%chance▲ 1
GDP growth in 2026
2.48%median
0%3%
Median 2.48%Middle half 2.23% – 2.74%
US real GDP growth in Q1 2027?
2.08%median
-0.5%4.5%
Median 2.08%Middle half 0.89% – 3.12%
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi and Polymarket, not forecasts by 4Search. Read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed up to 15 min. Not investment advice.
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