US recession by end of 2026?
8%chance▲ 1
Install
People's Bank of China rate change by December 31?
The odds
88%No Change
- No Change88%
- Decrease11%▼ 1
- Increase1%
How the odds have moved
No Change: 88% on Oct 13, 88% now.
Each outcome's chance over time, from its prices on Polymarket.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Change | 88% | 88¢ | 89¢ | $4.1K | |
| Decrease | 11% | ▼ 1 | 10¢ | 12¢ | $3.4K |
| Increase | 1% | 1¢ | 2¢ | $1.0K |
Related markets
All growth & recession ›South Dakota corn yield in 2026
152.1median
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US real GDP growth in Q3 2026?
3.25%median
-0.5%4.5%
Median 3.25%Middle half 2.67% – 3.94%
Recession in 2027?
20%chance▲ 1
GDP growth in 2026
2.48%median
0%3%
Median 2.48%Middle half 2.23% – 2.74%
US real GDP growth in Q1 2027?
2.08%median
-0.5%4.5%
Median 2.08%Middle half 0.89% – 3.12%
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi and Polymarket, not forecasts by 4Search. Read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed up to 15 min. Not investment advice.
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