US recession by end of 2026?
8%chance▲ 1
Install
What will the median home value in the US be on December 31?
The odds
$409,558median
$399,000$427,000
Median $409,558Middle half $404,888 – $415,275
How the odds have moved
Median: $409,278 on Oct 13, $409,558 now.
The median price the market implied over time, and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Polymarket.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| <$403K | 15% | ▼ 2 | 11¢ | 16¢ | $2.3K |
| $403K - $407K | 21% | ▼ 1 | 16¢ | 21¢ | $2.3K |
| $407K - $411K | 22% | 19¢ | 20¢ | $2.4K | |
| $411K - $415K | 16% | ▲ 1 | 9¢ | 19¢ | $1.3K |
| $415K - $419K | 19% | ▲ 2 | 14¢ | 20¢ | $3.4K |
| $419K - $423K | 7% | ▼ 4 | 3¢ | 9¢ | $4.6K |
| $423K+ | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | $395 |
Related markets
All growth & recession ›South Dakota corn yield in 2026
152.1median
120185
Median 152.1Middle half 147.1 – 157.2
US real GDP growth in Q3 2026?
3.24%median
-0.5%4.5%
Median 3.24%Middle half 2.66% – 3.94%
Recession in 2027?
20%chance▼ 1
GDP growth in 2026
2.48%median
0%3%
Median 2.48%Middle half 2.23% – 2.74%
US real GDP growth in Q1 2027?
2.08%median
-0.5%4.5%
Median 2.08%Middle half 0.89% – 3.12%
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi and Polymarket, not forecasts by 4Search. Read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed up to 15 min. Not investment advice.
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