US recession by end of 2026?
8%chance▲ 1
Install
Canada GDP: August 2026 (MoM)
The odds
0.22%median
-0.3%0.7%
Median 0.22%Middle half 0.05% – 0.28%
How the odds have moved
Median: 0.23% on Oct 13, 0.22% now.
The median price the market implied over time, and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Polymarket.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| <-0.2% | 4% | 1¢ | 7¢ | $952 | |
| -0.2 to -0.1% | 3% | 1¢ | 5¢ | $863 | |
| 0.0 to 0.1% | 34% | ▲ 1 | 33¢ | 34¢ | $11.3K |
| 0.2 to 0.3% | 42% | ▼ 2 | 41¢ | 42¢ | $6.5K |
| 0.4 to 0.5% | 18% | 17¢ | 18¢ | $6.8K | |
| 0.6%+ | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | $1.1K |
Related markets
All growth & recession ›South Dakota corn yield in 2026
152.0median
120185
Median 152.0Middle half 147.2 – 156.9
US real GDP growth in Q3 2026?
3.26%median
-0.5%4.5%
Median 3.26%Middle half 2.69% – 3.94%
Recession in 2027?
20%chance▼ 1
GDP growth in 2026
2.48%median
0%3%
Median 2.48%Middle half 2.23% – 2.74%
US real GDP growth in Q1 2027?
2.08%median
-0.5%4.5%
Median 2.08%Middle half 0.89% – 3.12%
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi and Polymarket, not forecasts by 4Search. Read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed up to 15 min. Not investment advice.
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