US recession by end of 2026?
8%chance▲ 1
Install
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment - October 2026
The odds
46.4median
37.157.9
Median 46.4Middle half 44.6 – 47.9
How the odds have moved
Median: 46.7 on Oct 13, 46.4 now.
The median price the market implied over time, and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Polymarket.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| <40.0 | <1% | 0¢ | 0¢ | $476 | |
| 40.0 to 42.9 | <1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | $721 | |
| 43.0 to 45.9 | 43% | ▼ 7 | 41¢ | 47¢ | $9.4K |
| 46.0 to 48.9 | 48% | ▲ 7 | 48¢ | 51¢ | $10.6K |
| 49.0 to 51.9 | 5% | ▲ 4 | 1¢ | 9¢ | $3.6K |
| 52.0 to 54.9 | 2% | 1¢ | 4¢ | $800 | |
| 55.0+ | 1% | 0¢ | 2¢ | $528 |
Related markets
All growth & recession ›South Dakota corn yield in 2026
152.1median
120185
Median 152.1Middle half 147.2 – 157.2
US real GDP growth in Q3 2026?
3.25%median
-0.5%4.5%
Median 3.25%Middle half 2.67% – 3.94%
Recession in 2027?
20%chance▲ 1
GDP growth in 2026
2.48%median
0%3%
Median 2.48%Middle half 2.23% – 2.74%
US real GDP growth in Q1 2027?
2.08%median
-0.5%4.5%
Median 2.08%Middle half 0.89% – 3.12%
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi and Polymarket, not forecasts by 4Search. Read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed up to 15 min. Not investment advice.
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