US recession by end of 2026?
8%chance▲ 1
Install
What will be in the UK Budget?
The odds
42%CGT increase
- CGT increase42%
- Fuel duty increase28%▼ 3
- Land value tax15%
- Wealth tax6%
How the odds have moved
CGT increase: 38% on Oct 13, 42% now.
Each outcome's chance over time, from its prices on Polymarket.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGT increase | 42% | 40¢ | 43¢ | $5.6K | |
| Fuel duty increase | 28% | ▼ 3 | 21¢ | 34¢ | $3.4K |
| Land value tax | 15% | 14¢ | 16¢ | $975 | |
| Wealth tax | 6% | 2¢ | 9¢ | $822 |
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3.26%median
-0.5%4.5%
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Recession in 2027?
20%chance▼ 1
GDP growth in 2026
2.48%median
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Median 2.48%Middle half 2.23% – 2.74%
US real GDP growth in Q1 2027?
2.08%median
-0.5%4.5%
Median 2.08%Middle half 0.89% – 3.12%
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi and Polymarket, not forecasts by 4Search. Read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed up to 15 min. Not investment advice.
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