Fed median dot plot in December 2026
4.04%median
3.4%4.7%
Median 4.04%Middle half 3.98% – 4.09%
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How many dissenting votes at the December Fed meeting? (December 2026)
The odds
0.33median
-0.505.50
Median 0.33Middle half -0.09 – 1.56
How the odds have moved
Median: 0.44 on Oct 29, 0.33 now.
The median price the market implied over time, and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 60% | ▲ 1 | 60¢ | 64¢ | 2.7K | |
| 1 | 14% | 10¢ | 18¢ | 267 | |
| 2 | 15% | 11¢ | 19¢ | 375 | |
| 3 | 9% | ▲ 2 | 6¢ | 13¢ | 283 |
| 4 | 1% | 2¢ | 100 | ||
| 5 | 1% | 2¢ | 100 |
More on this question
All central banks & rates ›December 2026 Fed Combo · Rate and Dissents
56%Rate: 25bp hike, Dissents: 0
- Rate: 25bp hike, Dissents: 056%
- Rate: No change, Dissents: >024%
- Rate: 25bp hike, Dissents: >013%▲ 1
- Rate: No change, Dissents: 04%
2 more
- Rate: 25bp cut, Dissents: >01%
- Rate: 25bp cut, Dissents: 01%
Who will dissent at the December Fed meeting? (December 2026 FOMC)
17%Beth Hammack
- Beth Hammack17%▼ 2
- Lisa Cook14%▼ 1
- Neel Kashkari13%▲ 2
- Michelle Bowman12%▲ 4
8 more
- Lorie Logan12%▲ 2
- Christopher Waller8%▼ 1
- Michael Barr7%▲ 4
- Anna Paulson7%▲ 4
- Philip Jefferson3%▲ 2
- Jerome Powell3%▲ 2
- John Williams3%▲ 2
- Kevin Warsh1%▼ 1
Another Fed rate hike in 2026?
70%chance▼ 1
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
97%0 (0 bps)
- 0 (0 bps)97%
- 1 (25 bps)1%
- 2 (50 bps)1%
- 3 (75 bps)<1%
9 more
- 4 (100 bps)<1%
- 12+ (300+ bps)<1%
- 7 (175 bps)<1%
- 5 (125 bps)<1%
- 6 (150 bps)<1%
- 8 (200 bps)<1%
- 9 (225 bps)<1%
- 10 (250 bps)<1%
- 11 (275 bps)<1%
Number of rate cuts in 2026?
0.03median
-0.5020.5
Median 0.03Middle half -0.23 – 0.30
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi and Polymarket, not forecasts by 4Search. Read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed up to 15 min. Not investment advice.
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