Core inflation in September 2026 (Core CPI YoY)
2.38%median
2%3.6%
Median 2.38%Middle half 2.33% – 2.45%
Install
CPI core year-over-year in Sep 2026?
The odds
2.5%median
2.15%3.75%
Median 2.5%Middle half 2.41% – 3.02%
How the odds have moved
Median: 2.5% on Oct 13, 2.5% now.
The median price the market implied over time, and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exactly 2.2% | <1% | ▼ 1 | 1¢ | 1.1K | |
| Exactly 2.3% | 6% | ▼ 2 | 6¢ | 11¢ | 925 |
| Exactly 2.4% | 30% | ▲ 3 | 44¢ | 45¢ | 2.8K |
| Exactly 2.5% | 25% | ▲ 2 | 34¢ | 38¢ | 1.1K |
| Exactly 2.6% | 7% | ▼ 2 | 8¢ | 12¢ | 221 |
| Exactly 2.7% | 1% | ▼ 1 | 2¢ | 118 | |
| Exactly 2.8% | 1% | 2¢ | 5.00 | ||
| Exactly 2.9% | 3% | 10¢ | 4.00 | ||
| Exactly 3.0% | 3% | 10¢ | 106 | ||
| Exactly 3.1% | 3% | 10¢ | 106 | ||
| Exactly 3.2% | 3% | 10¢ | 106 | ||
| Exactly 3.3% | 3% | 10¢ | 56.00 | ||
| Exactly 3.4% | 3% | 10¢ | 104 | ||
| Exactly 3.5% | 3% | 10¢ | 128 | ||
| Exactly 3.6% | 3% | 10¢ | 116 | ||
| Exactly 3.7% | 3% | 10¢ | 55.00 |
More on this question
All inflation & jobs ›CPI core month-over-month in Sep 2026?
0.21%median
-0.25%0.55%
Median 0.21%Middle half 0.16% – 0.28%
CPI core in September (In Sep 2026)
0.17%median
-0.1%1.1%
Median 0.17%Middle half 0.11% – 0.24%
September 2026 CPI MoM Combo · Headline & Core
42%Headline: 0.5% or above, Core: Exactly 0.2%
- Headline: 0.5% or above, Core: Exactly 0.2%42%▼ 1
- Headline: 0.5% or above, Core: 0.3% or above38%
- Headline: 0.5% or above, Core: 0.1% or below8%▼ 2
- Headline: Exactly 0.4%, Core: 0.1% or below4%▲ 1
8 more
- Headline: Exactly 0.3%, Core: Exactly 0.2%2%
- Headline: Exactly 0.4%, Core: Exactly 0.2%1%▼ 1
- Headline: Exactly 0.4%, Core: 0.3% or above1%
- Headline: 0.2% or below, Core: 0.1% or below1%
- Headline: 0.2% or below, Core: Exactly 0.2%1%
- Headline: 0.2% or below, Core: 0.3% or above1%
- Headline: Exactly 0.3%, Core: 0.1% or below1%
- Headline: Exactly 0.3%, Core: 0.3% or above1%
Core CPI MoM - September 2026
0.22%median
-0.05%0.65%
Median 0.22%Middle half 0.17% – 0.28%
Core CPI YoY - September 2026
2.44%median
1.95%2.95%
Median 2.44%Middle half 2.39% – 2.51%
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi and Polymarket, not forecasts by 4Search. Read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed up to 15 min. Not investment advice.
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