Core inflation in September 2026 (Core CPI YoY)
2.39%median
2%3.6%
Median 2.39%Middle half 2.33% – 2.46%
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September 2026 CPI MoM Combo · Headline & Core
The odds
42%Headline: 0.5% or above, Core: Exactly 0.2%
- Headline: 0.5% or above, Core: Exactly 0.2%42%▼ 1
- Headline: 0.5% or above, Core: 0.3% or above38%
- Headline: 0.5% or above, Core: 0.1% or below9%▼ 1
- Headline: Exactly 0.4%, Core: 0.1% or below4%▼ 1
- Headline: Exactly 0.3%, Core: Exactly 0.2%2%
- Headline: Exactly 0.4%, Core: Exactly 0.2%1%
- Headline: Exactly 0.4%, Core: 0.3% or above1%
- Headline: 0.2% or below, Core: 0.1% or below<1%
- Headline: 0.2% or below, Core: Exactly 0.2%<1%
- Headline: 0.2% or below, Core: 0.3% or above<1%
- Headline: Exactly 0.3%, Core: 0.1% or below<1%
- Headline: Exactly 0.3%, Core: 0.3% or above<1%
How the odds have moved
Headline: 0.5% or above, Core: Exactly 0: 42% on Oct 13, 42% now.
Each outcome's chance over time, from its prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Headline: 0.5% or above, Core: Exactly 0.2% | 42% | ▼ 1 | 41¢ | 44¢ | 29.7K |
| Headline: 0.5% or above, Core: 0.3% or above | 38% | 36¢ | 41¢ | 7.3K | |
| Headline: 0.5% or above, Core: 0.1% or below | 9% | ▼ 1 | 6¢ | 12¢ | 9.2K |
| Headline: Exactly 0.4%, Core: 0.1% or below | 4% | ▼ 1 | 3¢ | 6¢ | 4.7K |
| Headline: Exactly 0.3%, Core: Exactly 0.2% | 2% | 4¢ | 15.2K | ||
| Headline: Exactly 0.4%, Core: Exactly 0.2% | 1% | 3¢ | 16.2K | ||
| Headline: Exactly 0.4%, Core: 0.3% or above | 1% | 2¢ | 12.4K | ||
| Headline: 0.2% or below, Core: 0.1% or below | <1% | 1¢ | 8.7K | ||
| Headline: 0.2% or below, Core: Exactly 0.2% | <1% | 1¢ | 8.9K | ||
| Headline: 0.2% or below, Core: 0.3% or above | <1% | 1¢ | 9.4K | ||
| Headline: Exactly 0.3%, Core: 0.1% or below | <1% | 1¢ | 13.1K | ||
| Headline: Exactly 0.3%, Core: 0.3% or above | <1% | 1¢ | 11.2K |
More on this question
All inflation & jobs ›CPI core in September (In Sep 2026)
0.17%median
-0.1%1.1%
Median 0.17%Middle half 0.11% – 0.24%
CPI core month-over-month in Sep 2026?
0.21%median
-0.25%0.55%
Median 0.21%Middle half 0.15% – 0.28%
CPI core year-over-year in Sep 2026?
2.5%median
2.15%3.75%
Median 2.5%Middle half 2.41% – 3.02%
Core CPI MoM - September 2026
0.22%median
-0.05%0.65%
Median 0.22%Middle half 0.17% – 0.28%
Core CPI YoY - September 2026
2.44%median
1.95%2.95%
Median 2.44%Middle half 2.38% – 2.5%
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi and Polymarket, not forecasts by 4Search. Read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed up to 15 min. Not investment advice.
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