Core inflation in September 2026 (Core CPI YoY)
2.39%median
2%3.6%
Median 2.39%Middle half 2.33% – 2.46%
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CPI core in September (In Sep 2026)
The odds
0.17%median
-0.1%1.1%
Median 0.17%Middle half 0.11% – 0.24%
How the odds have moved
Median: 0.17% on Oct 13, 0.17% now.
The median price the market implied over time, and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 0.0% | 97% | 96¢ | 97¢ | 17.5K | |
| Above 0.1% | 79% | 78¢ | 79¢ | 113.6K | |
| Above 0.2% | 37% | ▼ 1 | 36¢ | 37¢ | 106.7K |
| Above 0.3% | 5% | ▼ 3 | 4¢ | 5¢ | 139.3K |
| Above 0.4% | 1% | 1¢ | 38.4K | ||
| Above 0.5% | 1% | 1¢ | 6.4K | ||
| Above 0.6% | 1% | 1¢ | 10.2K | ||
| Above 0.7% | 1% | 1¢ | 2.8K | ||
| Above 0.8% | 1% | 1¢ | 73.00 | ||
| Above 0.9% | 1% | 1¢ | 43.00 | ||
| Above 1.0% | 1% | 1¢ | 52.00 |
More on this question
All inflation & jobs ›September 2026 CPI MoM Combo · Headline & Core
42%Headline: 0.5% or above, Core: Exactly 0.2%
- Headline: 0.5% or above, Core: Exactly 0.2%42%▼ 1
- Headline: 0.5% or above, Core: 0.3% or above38%▼ 1
- Headline: 0.5% or above, Core: 0.1% or below9%▼ 1
- Headline: Exactly 0.4%, Core: 0.1% or below4%▼ 1
8 more
- Headline: Exactly 0.3%, Core: Exactly 0.2%2%
- Headline: Exactly 0.4%, Core: Exactly 0.2%1%
- Headline: Exactly 0.4%, Core: 0.3% or above1%
- Headline: 0.2% or below, Core: 0.1% or below1%
- Headline: 0.2% or below, Core: Exactly 0.2%1%
- Headline: 0.2% or below, Core: 0.3% or above1%
- Headline: Exactly 0.3%, Core: 0.1% or below1%
- Headline: Exactly 0.3%, Core: 0.3% or above1%
CPI core month-over-month in Sep 2026?
0.21%median
-0.25%0.55%
Median 0.21%Middle half 0.15% – 0.28%
CPI core year-over-year in Sep 2026?
2.5%median
2.15%3.75%
Median 2.5%Middle half 2.41% – 3.02%
Core CPI MoM - September 2026
0.22%median
-0.05%0.65%
Median 0.22%Middle half 0.17% – 0.28%
Core CPI YoY - September 2026
2.44%median
1.95%2.95%
Median 2.44%Middle half 2.38% – 2.5%
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi and Polymarket, not forecasts by 4Search. Read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed up to 15 min. Not investment advice.
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