When will Stephen Schwarzman leave as Blackstone CEO? (Before Jan 1, 2029)

Kalshi Closes Jan 1, 2029 · prices read 22 min ago

The odds

21%Before Jan 1, 2029

Before Jul 1, 20277%
Before Jan 1, 202811%▼ 1
Before Jan 1, 202921%▼ 1

How the odds have moved

Before Jul 1, 2027: 6% on Oct 31, 7% now.

Each outcome's chance over time, from its prices on Kalshi.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask
Before Jul 1, 2027	7%		3¢	10¢
Before Jan 1, 2028	11%	▼ 1	7¢	15¢
Before Jan 1, 2029	21%	▼ 1	17¢	25¢

Related markets

All stocks & companies ›

Largest Company end of December 2026?

63%Apple

Apple63%▼ 9
NVIDIA35%▲ 9
Microsoft1%▼ 1
Alphabet1%

4 more

SpaceX<1%
Tesla<1%
Saudi Aramco<1%
Amazon<1%

AAPL−0.21%AMZN−0.10%GOOGL+1.11%MSFT−0.78%

Anthropic IPO by __?

Nov 25, 2026even chance by

November 15, 20261%▼ 1
November 16, 20264%
November 17, 20266%▲ 1
November 18, 202612%▲ 4

8 more

November 19, 202624%▲ 5
November 20, 202642%▲ 6
November 23, 202644%▼ 2
November 24, 202650%▲ 2
November 25, 202656%▲ 1
November 30, 202659%▼ 6
December 15, 202663%▼ 8
December 31, 202670%▼ 2

Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?

$1.81Thigh with an even chance

Traders see an even chance of trading as high as $1.81T.

Reaches $1.5T71%
Reaches $1.75T55%
Reaches $2T33%
Reaches $2.25T16%

Falls to $800B6%
Falls to $700B3%
Falls to $600B2%

Already reached: ↑$1.25T, ↑$1.1T, ↑$1.0T

Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?

89%SpaceX

SpaceX89%▲ 10
xAI21%
Anthropic8%▼ 7
OpenAI<1%

9 more

ByteDance<1%
Stripe<1%
Databricks<1%
SHEIN<1%
Waymo<1%
Revolut<1%
Discord<1%
Perplexity AI<1%
Kraken<1%

SPCX+8.74%

Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap

27%$1.25–$1.5T

$1.25–$1.5T27%▲ 11
<$1.25T22%▲ 9
$1.5–$1.75T20%▼ 4
$1.75–$2.0T11%▼ 11

6 more

$2.0–$2.25T8%▼ 8
$2.25–$2.5T5%▲ 1
No IPO by December 31, 20273%▼ 1
$2.5–$2.75T2%
$2.75–$3.0T1%
$3.0T+1%

AI bubble burst by...?

26%June 30, 2027

December 31, 20268%▼ 8
June 30, 202726%▼ 22

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi and Polymarket, not forecasts by 4Search. Read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed up to 15 min. Not investment advice.

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