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2026 Elections
The general election is November 3, 2026, 22 days away. Every House seat, 35 Senate seats and the governorships with markets below, with what prediction markets and the coverage say.
Control of the Senate
Details →Seats now
R 53 RepublicansI 2 IndependentsD 45 Democrats
Who wins control: market odds
-
- Democratic Party62%
- Republican Party39%
- Which party will win the Senate in 2026?Polymarket
- Democratic Party64%
- Republican Party37%
- Balance of Power: 2026 MidtermsPolymarket
- Democrats Sweep62%
- R Senate, D House28%
- Republicans Sweep10%▲1
- + 2 more outcomes
Control of the House
Details →Seats now
R 218 RepublicansI 1 IndependentD 214 Democrats2 vacant
Who wins control: market odds
-
- Democratic Party89%
- Republican Party11%
- Which party will win the House in 2026?Polymarket
- Democratic Party91%
- Republican Party10%
- House control favorite on November 2?Polymarket
- Democratic Party>99%
- Republican Party<1%
Prediction-market prices show what traders are paying for each outcome, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong. Not betting or investment advice.
Senate races
| State | Holds the seat | Market favorite | By party |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alaska |  Dan SullivanR Senator, Alaska | Democratic party 73% Kalshi | R 27% D 73% Kalshi |
| Alabama |  Tommy TubervilleR Senator, Alabama | Barry Moore (R) 97% Polymarket | R 97% D 2% Polymarket |
| Arkansas |  Tom CottonR Senator, Arkansas | Tom Cotton 94% Kalshi | R 94% D 6% Polymarket |
| Colorado |  John W. HickenlooperD Senator, Colorado | John Hickenlooper (D) 98% Polymarket | R 1% D 98% Polymarket |
| Delaware |  Christopher A. CoonsD Senator, Delaware | Democrat 99% Polymarket | R 2% D 99% Polymarket |
| Florida |  Ashley MoodyR Senator, Floridaspecial election | Ashley Moody 91% Kalshi | R 91% D 11% Polymarket |
| Georgia |  Jon OssoffD Senator, Georgia | Jon Ossoff 95% Kalshi | R 4% D 96% Polymarket |
| Iowa |  Joni ErnstR Senator, Iowa | Ashley Hinson 59% Kalshi | R 59% D 43% Polymarket |
| Idaho |  James E. RischR Senator, Idaho | Jim Risch 94% Kalshi | R 95% D <1% Polymarket |
| Illinois |  Richard J. DurbinD Senator, Illinois | Juliana Stratton (D) 98% Polymarket | R 1% D 98% Polymarket |
| Kansas |  Roger MarshallR Senator, Kansas | Roger Marshall 63% Kalshi | R 63% D 38% Polymarket |
| Kentucky |  Mitch McConnellR Senator, Kentucky | Andy Barr 96% Kalshi | R 97% D 3% Polymarket |
| Louisiana |  Bill CassidyR Senator, Louisiana | Julia Letlow (R) 93% Polymarket | R 93% D 7% Polymarket |
| Massachusetts |  Edward J. MarkeyD Senator, Massachusetts | Ed Markey (D) 98% Polymarket | R 2% D 98% Polymarket |
| Maine |  Susan M. CollinsR Senator, Maine | Troy Jackson 58% Kalshi | R 42% D 60% Polymarket |
| Michigan |  Gary C. PetersD Senator, Michigan | Abdul El-Sayed 67% Kalshi | R 30% D 71% Polymarket |
| Minnesota |  Tina SmithD Senator, Minnesota | Peggy Flanagan 87% Kalshi | R 13% D 88% Polymarket |
| Mississippi |  Cindy Hyde-SmithR Senator, Mississippi | Cindy Hyde-Smith 92% Kalshi | R 94% D 7% Polymarket |
| Montana |  Steve DainesR Senator, Montana | Kurt Alme 93% Kalshi | R 92% D <1% Polymarket |
| North Carolina |  Thom TillisR Senator, North Carolina | Roy Cooper 96% Kalshi | R 4% D 96% Polymarket |
| Nebraska |  Pete RickettsR Senator, Nebraska | Pete Ricketts 74% Kalshi | R 73% D <1% Polymarket |
| New Hampshire |  Jeanne ShaheenD Senator, New Hampshire | Chris Pappas 89% Kalshi | R 12% D 89% Polymarket |
| New Jersey |  Cory A. BookerD Senator, New Jersey | Cory Booker 97% Kalshi | R 3% D 97% Polymarket |
| New Mexico |  Ben Ray LujánD Senator, New Mexico | Ben Ray Luján 97% Kalshi | R 2% D 97% Polymarket |
| Ohio |  Jon HustedR Senator, Ohiospecial election | Sherrod Brown 60% Kalshi | R 40% D 62% Polymarket |
| Oklahoma |  Alan ArmstrongR Senator, Oklahoma | Kevin Hern (R) 97% Polymarket | R 97% D 2% Polymarket |
| Oregon |  Jeff MerkleyD Senator, Oregon | Jeff Merkley 98% Kalshi | R 2% D 98% Polymarket |
| Rhode Island |  Jack ReedD Senator, Rhode Island | Jack Reed (D) 98% Polymarket | R 2% D 98% Polymarket |
| South Carolina |  Darline GrahamR Senator, South Carolina | Darline Graham 86% Kalshi | R 85% D 16% Polymarket |
| South Dakota |  Mike RoundsR Senator, South Dakota | Mike Rounds 94% Kalshi | R 93% D <1% Polymarket |
| Tennessee |  Bill HagertyR Senator, Tennessee | Bill Hagerty 93% Kalshi | R 94% D 6% Polymarket |
| Texas |  John CornynR Senator, Texas | James Talarico 64% Kalshi | R 36% D 65% Polymarket |
| Virginia |  Mark R. WarnerD Senator, Virginia | Mark Warner 97% Kalshi | R 2% D 98% Polymarket |
| West Virginia |  Shelley Moore CapitoR Senator, West Virginia | Shelley Moore Capito 98% Kalshi | R 98% D 1% Polymarket |
| Wyoming |  Cynthia M. LummisR Senator, Wyoming | Harriet Hageman 98% Kalshi | R 98% D 2% Polymarket |
"Market favorite" is the leading outcome of the most traded market on the race; open a state for every market and the news.
Governor races
| State | Market favorite | By party |
|---|---|---|
| Alaska | Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins 79% Polymarket | D 66% Kalshi |
| Alabama | Tommy Tuberville 92% Kalshi | R 94% D 7% Polymarket |
| Arkansas | Sarah Huckabee Sanders (R) 97% Polymarket | R 97% D 2% Polymarket |
| Arizona | Katie Hobbs 87% Kalshi | R 12% D 89% Polymarket |
| California | Xavier Becerra 96% Polymarket | – |
| Colorado | Phil Weiser 96% Kalshi | R 3% D 97% Polymarket |
| Connecticut | Ned Lamont 95% Kalshi | R 3% D 97% Polymarket |
| Florida | Byron Donalds 78% Kalshi | R 79% D 21% Polymarket |
| Georgia | Rick Jackson 57% Kalshi | R 53% D 48% Polymarket |
| Guam | Therese Terlaje (D) 70% Polymarket | R 32% D 70% Polymarket |
| Hawaii | Josh Green (D) >99% Polymarket | R <1% D >99% Polymarket |
| Iowa | Rob Sand 89% Kalshi | R 12% D 89% Polymarket |
| Idaho | Brad Little (R) 98% Polymarket | R 98% D 2% Polymarket |
| Illinois | JB Pritzker 97% Kalshi | R 3% D 97% Polymarket |
| Kansas | Ty Masterson (R) 75% Polymarket | R 75% D 25% Polymarket |
| Massachusetts | Maura Healey 95% Kalshi | R 4% D 96% Polymarket |
| Maryland | Wes Moore 98% Kalshi | R 2% D 98% Polymarket |
| Maine | Hannah Pingree 95% Kalshi | R 4% D 96% Polymarket |
| Michigan | Jocelyn Benson 93% Kalshi | R 6% D 94% Polymarket |
| Minnesota | Amy Klobuchar 95% Kalshi | R 5% D 96% Polymarket |
| Nebraska | Jim Pillen 90% Kalshi | R 90% D 10% Polymarket |
| New Hampshire | Kelly Ayotte 94% Kalshi | R 94% D 6% Polymarket |
| New Mexico | Deb Haaland 91% Kalshi | R 8% D 91% Polymarket |
| Nevada | Aaron Ford 52% Kalshi | R 46% D 55% Polymarket |
| New York | Kathy Hochul 95% Kalshi | R 5% D 96% Polymarket |
| Ohio | Amy Acton 68% Kalshi | R 32% D 69% Polymarket |
| Oklahoma | Mike Mazzei 93% Kalshi | R 93% D 8% Polymarket |
| Oregon | Tina Kotek 74% Kalshi | R 25% D 77% Polymarket |
| Pennsylvania | Josh Shapiro 99% Kalshi | R 2% D 98% Polymarket |
| Rhode Island | Helena Foulkes (D) 97% Polymarket | R 2% D 97% Polymarket |
| South Carolina | Alan Wilson 94% Kalshi | R 95% D 5% Polymarket |
| South Dakota | Larry Rhoden (R) 98% Polymarket | R 98% D 2% Polymarket |
| Tennessee | Marsha Blackburn 94% Kalshi | R 94% D 6% Polymarket |
| Texas | Greg Abbott 82% Kalshi | R 79% D 22% Polymarket |
| Vermont | Phil Scott 76% Kalshi | R 75% D 24% Polymarket |
| Wisconsin | David Crowley 81% Kalshi | R 20% D 81% Polymarket |
| Wyoming | Eric Barlow (R) 98% Polymarket | R 98% D 2% Polymarket |
House races with the most trading
| District | Holds the seat | Market favorite |
|---|---|---|
| MT-1 |  Ryan K. ZinkeR Rep., MT-1 | Aaron Flint 72% Kalshi |
| FL-14 |  Kathy CastorD Rep., FL-14 | Kathy Castor 66% Kalshi |
| MN-1 |  Brad FinstadR Rep., MN-1 | Brad Finstad 77% Kalshi |
| FL-25 |  Debbie Wasserman SchultzD Rep., FL-25 | Jared Moskowitz 75% Kalshi |
| AL-2 |  Shomari FiguresD Rep., AL-2 | Rhett Marques 74% Kalshi |
| CO-4 |  Lauren BoebertR Rep., CO-4 | Lauren Boebert 74% Kalshi |
| PA-8 |  Robert P. Bresnahan, Jr.R Rep., PA-8 | Paige Cognetti 74% Kalshi |
| CA-11 |  Nancy PelosiD Rep., CA-11 | Scott Wiener 82% Kalshi |
| FL-22 |  Lois FrankelD Rep., FL-22 | Pia Dandiya 55% Kalshi |
| MO-2 |  Ann WagnerR Rep., MO-2 | Ann Wagner 75% Kalshi |
| WI-3 |  Derrick Van OrdenR Rep., WI-3 | Rebecca Cooke 75% Kalshi |
| MS-1 |  Trent KellyR Rep., MS-1 | Trent Kelly (R) 96% Polymarket |
| FL-27 |  Maria Elvira SalazarR Rep., FL-27 | Maria Elvira Salazar 65% Kalshi |
| KY-6 |  Andy BarrR Rep., KY-6 | Ralph Alvarado 70% Kalshi |
| CA-28 |  Judy ChuD Rep., CA-28 | Judy Chu (D) 97% Polymarket |
| MO-5 |  Emanuel CleaverD Rep., MO-5 | Emanuel Cleaver (D) 97% Polymarket |
| FL-1 |  Jimmy PatronisR Rep., FL-1 | Jimmy Patronis (R) 96% Polymarket |
| CA-15 |  Kevin MullinD Rep., CA-15 | Kevin Mullin (D) 97% Polymarket |
| HI-2 |  Jill N. TokudaD Rep., HI-2 | Jill Tokuda (D) 96% Polymarket |
| MN-5 |  Ilhan OmarD Rep., MN-5 | Ilhan Omar (D) 94% Polymarket |
| CO-5 |  Jeff CrankR Rep., CO-5 | Jeff Crank 77% Kalshi |
| AL-7 |  Terri A. SewellD Rep., AL-7 | Terri Sewell (D) 98% Polymarket |
| VA-5 |  John J. McGuire IIIR Rep., VA-5 | John McGuire (R) 76% Polymarket |
| OK-3 |  Frank D. LucasR Rep., OK-3 | Frank Lucas (R) 96% Polymarket |
| VA-6 |  Ben ClineR Rep., VA-6 | Ben Cline (R) 94% Polymarket |
| FL-9 |  Darren SotoD Rep., FL-9 | Dan Green 71% Kalshi |
| CA-16 |  Sam T. LiccardoD Rep., CA-16 | Sam Liccardo (D) 97% Polymarket |
| CA-6 |  Ami BeraD Rep., CA-6 | Democratic Party 95% Polymarket |
| LA-6 |  Cleo FieldsD Rep., LA-6 | Republican Party 93% Polymarket |
| MD-1 |  Andy HarrisR Rep., MD-1 | Andy Harris (R) 93% Polymarket |
| IL-16 |  Darin LaHoodR Rep., IL-16 | Darin LaHood (R) 96% Polymarket |
| WV-2 |  Riley M. MooreR Rep., WV-2 | Riley Moore (R) 97% Polymarket |
| KS-4 |  Ron EstesR Rep., KS-4 | Ron Estes (R) 96% Polymarket |
| OH-7 |  Max L. MillerR Rep., OH-7 | Brian Poindexter (D) 81% Polymarket |
| KY-4 |  Thomas MassieR Rep., KY-4 | Ed Gallrein (R) 96% Polymarket |
| GA-11 |  Barry LoudermilkR Rep., GA-11 | John Cowan (R) 96% Polymarket |
| MI-11 |  Haley M. StevensD Rep., MI-11 | Jeremy Moss (D) 96% Polymarket |
| WI-5 |  Scott FitzgeraldR Rep., WI-5 | Scott Fitzgerald (R) 97% Polymarket |
| WI-2 |  Mark PocanD Rep., WI-2 | Mark Pocan (D) 98% Polymarket |
| TN-4 |  Scott DesJarlaisR Rep., TN-4 | Scott DesJarlais (R) 96% Polymarket |
435 House districts have markets; every member's page shows the market on their own seat.
Other 2026 election markets
All markets →-
- 22–2333%
- 24–2527%▲1
- <2222%▲1
- 26–2713%▼1
- + 2 more outcomes
Election news
Elections topic →No recent coverage in the index.
Congressional and federal records come from official public sources: the House Clerk, the U.S. Senate, GovInfo and the Library of Congress (bill status), the Federal Register, and the congress-legislators project. They are copied on a schedule and may lag the official record by a few hours; the official sources govern. News and coverage counts are drawn from the 4Search index and reflect what the press published, not 4Search's views. Nothing here is an endorsement of any candidate, party or position. Terms of use.