Predictions › Central banks & rates SOFR for October 16, 2026 Kalshi Closes Mon 7:59 AM ET · 5.6K contracts · prices read 13 min ago
3.85% 3.92%
Median 3.86% Middle half 3.85% – 3.9%
Median: 3.86% on Oct 17, 3.86% now.
The median price the market implied over time, and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Rate: No change, Dissents: >0 78% ▲ 1 Rate: No change, Dissents: 0 10% ▼ 2 Rate: 25bp hike, Dissents: 0 6% ▼ 1 Rate: 25bp hike, Dissents: >0 5% ▼ 2 2 more Rate: 25bp cut, Dissents: 0 <1% Rate: 25bp cut, Dissents: >0 <1%
-0.50 5.50
Median 1.25 Middle half 0.23 – 2.38
Beth Hammack 77% ▼ 3 Lorie Logan 47% ▲ 10 Neel Kashkari 36% ▲ 2 Michelle Bowman 10% ▲ 2 8 more Anna Paulson 8% Christopher Waller 7% Michael Barr 5% Lisa Cook 3% ▲ 1 Kevin Warsh 2% John Williams 2% Philip Jefferson 2% Jerome Powell 1%
3.4% 4.7%
Median 4.09% Middle half 4.02% – 4.18%
0 (0 bps) 98% 1 (25 bps) 1% 2 (50 bps) 1% 3 (75 bps) <1% 9 more 4 (100 bps) <1% 5 (125 bps) <1% 6 (150 bps) <1% 7 (175 bps) <1% 8 (200 bps) <1% 9 (225 bps) <1% 10 (250 bps) <1% 11 (275 bps) <1% 12+ (300+ bps) <1% Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi and Polymarket, not forecasts by 4Search. Read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed up to 15 min. Not investment advice.
Settles on Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Trading closes Oct 19, 2026 7:59 AM ET
Traded 5.6K contracts
Prices read 13 min ago
Followed since Oct 16, 2026
The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi .
Reading the odds Each price is the market's probability: a contract at 84¢ that pays $1 if the outcome happens means traders give it an 84% chance. The number shown is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.
The strikes' odds give a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way, and the middle half spans the 25th to the 75th percentile.
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Market data is provided for information only and comes from free public sources. Prices may be delayed up to 15 minutes; data may be incomplete or inaccurate. Nothing on this page is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. News and coverage analytics are drawn from the 4Search index. Terms of use .