Next Fed rate cut?
77%Before 2029
- Before 202977%
- Before July 202863%
- Before 202838%
- Before July 202722%
1 more
- Before 20273%
Install
Next Fed rate hike?
The odds
97%Before 2029
- Before 202997%▲ 1
- Before July 202896%▼ 1
- Before 202893%
- Before July 202792%
- Before 202779%▼ 2
How the odds have moved
Before 2029: 96% on Oct 13, 97% now.
Each outcome's chance over time, from its prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before 2029 | 97% | ▲ 1 | 94¢ | 99¢ | 1.7K |
| Before July 2028 | 96% | ▼ 1 | 93¢ | 98¢ | 586 |
| Before 2028 | 93% | 91¢ | 95¢ | 2.5K | |
| Before July 2027 | 92% | 90¢ | 93¢ | 22.2K | |
| Before 2027 | 79% | ▼ 2 | 77¢ | 80¢ | 69.1K |
More on this question
All central banks & rates ›Fed funds rate at end of 2028
3.75%median
0.75%6.25%
Median 3.75%Middle half 2.52% – 4.96%
Fed rate cut by...?
53%July 2027 Meeting
- July 2027 Meeting53%▼ 1
- June 2027 Meeting36%▼ 1
- April 2027 Meeting34%▲ 1
- March 2027 Meeting18%▲ 2
3 more
- January 2027 Meeting5%
- December 2026 Meeting3%
- October 2026 Meeting1%
Fed funds rate at end of 2029
3.69%median
0.75%6.25%
Median 3.69%Middle half 1.94% – 5.59%
Fed funds rate at end of 2027
4.38%median
0.75%6.25%
Median 4.38%Middle half 4.12% – 4.69%
Fed Funds (EFFR) at end of Q4 2026
4.15%median
3.25%4.75%
Median 4.15%Middle half 4.04% – 4.28%
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi and Polymarket, not forecasts by 4Search. Read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed up to 15 min. Not investment advice.
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