10Y-2Y spread at the end of 2026

Kalshi Closes Dec 31 · 9.3K contracts · prices read 37 min ago

The odds

34.52%median
10Y Yield now 4.837 −1.16%
-40%80%
Median 34.52%Middle half 21.54% – 50.42%Above today's price 92%

How the odds have moved

Median: 44.39% on Oct 3, 34.52% now.

The median price the market implied over time, and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Contracts
Above -30bps 98% 95¢ 326
Above -20bps 97% ▼ 1 94¢ 99¢ 266
Above -10bps 96% 93¢ 99¢ 76.00
Above 0bps 95% ▲ 2 90¢ 99¢ 224
Above 10bps 89% ▲ 4 84¢ 94¢ 227
Above 20bps 77% ▲ 4 74¢ 80¢ 676
Above 30bps 64% ▲ 8 59¢ 69¢ 1.9K
Above 40bps 33% ▼ 6 25¢ 41¢ 2.3K
Above 50bps 26% ▲ 2 25¢ 26¢ 756
Above 60bps 14% ▲ 2 12¢ 15¢ 344
Above 70bps 7% ▲ 1 3¢ 10¢ 2.2K

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi and Polymarket, not forecasts by 4Search. Read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed up to 15 min. Not investment advice.

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