16+ hour, 49+ min ago  (829+ words) by Joe Jensen | Apr 28, 2026 | mlb Kelly's 9. 31 ERA and control problems clash with Patrick's steady approach " the moneyline at -118 feels light for the pitcher who can throw strikes. The pitching gap here is stark, even if the market hasn't fully recognized…...

12+ hour, 11+ min ago  (633+ words) by Joe Jensen | Apr 28, 2026 | mlb Oakland gets home field and superior pitching command at near pick'em odds " the market is pricing Kansas City's recent offensive explosion without properly weighing the Royals' bullpen losses and Civale's walk rate advantage. What the…...

12+ hour, 11+ min ago  (919+ words) by Joe Jensen | Apr 28, 2026 | mlb Ohtani's knuckle curve generates a 51. 9% whiff rate while Junk's fastball command issues create hittable counts " but the -314 price treats this talent gap like a sure thing when yesterday's close game suggests otherwise. The Dodgers are…...

16+ hour, 42+ min ago  (1032+ words) by Joe Jensen | Apr 28, 2026 | mlb Cabrera's sweeper-cutter combo has been dominant while Buehler's sinker allows. 986 xw OBA " yet the market has this priced as a modest pitching edge. After yesterday's wild 9-7 shootout that saw the Padres rally late, the pitching…...

14+ hour, 10+ min ago  (697+ words) by R. B. Dressler | Apr 28, 2026 | nba RBD breaks down his betting decision for Portland vs San Antonio, leaning on trends, models, and playoff handicapping angles. I have some uncomfortable choices to make today. First up, what to do about my Knicks series…...

16+ hour, 24+ min ago  (1066+ words) by Joe Jensen | Apr 28, 2026 | mlb Chase Burns" devastating slider creates a clear mismatch against Colorado"s contact-heavy offense, but Cincinnati"s -207 price demands near-perfect execution. The talent differential supports the home team " the juice may not. The market has priced…...

17+ hour, 41+ min ago  (603+ words) Jensen sees Martinez's command edge over Bibee's early struggles creating moneyline value. Why Tampa Bay's pitching advantage isn't fully priced at +113....

17+ hour, 40+ min ago  (908+ words) by Joe Jensen | Apr 28, 2026 | mlb The matchup points one way with a three-run ERA gap between starters " the price is still treating this like Houston's record defines the game. Teng's precision against Baz's 1. 55 WHIP creates pressure the moneyline hasn't fully…...

1+ day, 16+ hour ago  (40+ words) Jensen sees value in the massive pitching gap between Messick's 1. 76 ERA and Matz's 4. 81 struggles. See why the starter differential matters more than the price suggests....

1+ day, 16+ hour ago  (22+ words) Jensen sees value on Minnesota getting plus money at home against struggling Luis Castillo. Why the market is overpricing Seattle's road favoritism....